Hello everyone!
Another wonderful week of College football is starting soon. Lets run down the picks for this week.
I made the game choices, and…I did a poor job, because we all picked essentially the same way. Sigh. Here goes:
Matt C’s Picks:
Florida State at Duke. Florida State is wounded right now. They miss their star QB. All the backs and skill position players are nursing ailments of some kind. And they are 1-3 right now, with games against Louisville, Clemson and Florida upcoming; lose this one and they could very well have a losing season. There’s incentive to win for the Seminoles, but do they have enough people to play? After the loss to Miami, Duke couldn’t move the ball on Virginia and lost for a second week in a row. The Blue Devil defense kept them in the game, keeping Virginia to just 310 yards and returning an INT for a TD, but it wasn’t enough. This will be a slugfest, but Florida State is built for a fight. Duke just isn’t.
The Pick: Florida State 21, Duke 18.
Georgia Tech at Miami. Miami and coach Mark Richt are rolling, coming off a 24-20 win over rival Florida State. However, they just lost senior RB Mark Walton for the season, and behind him is a RB, Travis Homer, who has 32 total carries…for his career. That’s some thin depth. Since losing to Tennessee in a double OT thriller to start the season, the Georgia Tech defense has clamped down, allowing just 34 total points in the last three games. Okay, one game was against Jacksonville State, but the other two were Pittsburgh and North Carolina. Say what you want about both teams, but they have decent offenses, and the Yellowjackets stopped them cold. The spread for this one is currently even; ESPN is giving this one heavily to Miami. If it was in Atlanta, I’d give it to Georgia Tech.
The Pick: Miami 27, Georgia Tech 24.
TCU at Kansas State. TCU is climbing the CFP rankings week after week, and have knocked off two of the Big 12 offensive heavyweights in successive weeks, beating Oklahoma State on September 23 44-32, and West Virginia last week 31-24. However, they haven’t played a team with a better defense than Kansas State. The Wildcats find themselves 3-2, losing a ugly 14-7 game to Vanderbilt, and losing to a resurgent Texas team last week 40-34 in two OT’s. The wildcard in this game is the health of K State QB Jesse Ertz. Ertz, who appeared to injure his knee last week, was able to go back into the game, but was very obviously unable to run the ball. Backup Alex Delton is a good runner, but is nowhere as accomplished at throwing the ball. So if Ertz is healthy, the Wildcats have a chance. If not? TCU wins.
The Pick: TCU 38, Kansas State 24.
Oklahoma at Texas (Neutral Site). The Red River Rivalry is back! And for the first time in a long time, the momentum is all on Texas side. The Longhorns knocked off Kansas State last week, and seem to have found their QB of the future and present in freshman Sam Ehlinger. Plus, Texas beat Iowa State the week before…the same Iowa State team that just finished beating Oklahoma 38-31. Okay, fine, so Oklahoma was looking ahead to this game. But that doesn’t excuse the loss; OU should have waxed the floor with the Cyclones, based on talent alone. Is there more parity in college football this year than people think? After all, Oklahoma beat Ohio State earlier, at the Horseshoe; that’s not exactly easy. Texas lost 51-41 against Maryland, and they got destroyed by Ohio State. Based on talent and experience, Oklahoma wins this one. Based on emotion and momentum, Texas wins. Based on Baker Mayfield?
The Pick: Oklahoma 42, Texas 39.
Ohio State at Nebraska. The game Husker fans have been dreading since the year started. The Great and Mighty Ohio State Buckeyes invade Memorial Stadium this week. Ohio State just finished destroying an improved Maryland team 62-14 last week, holding the Terrapins to just 66 total yards. Okay, yes, that’s bad news…but look a little deeper. Maryland was playing its third string QB, who got knocked out of the game with an apparent concussion. (So it seems the injury bug affecting Maryland QB’s has continued even without Randy Edsall as coach) Needless to say, a fourth string QB isn’t going to do particularly well against one of the best teams in the nation. Who else has Ohio State beaten? Rutgers? Whoo woo. UNLV? The Rebels put 21 up on the Buckeyes. Army? The Black Knights usually are decent, but talent is thin and usually pretty small, compared to like teams. Oklahoma? Oh right, Ohio State let the Sooners score 31 points and plant the Sooner flag on the “I” in the field. If I’m Coach Riley, I give the following instructions:
- Get pressure on JT Barrett. Oklahoma got three sacks on Barrett, and chased him around the pocket all game long. He responded with a 19-35 night for 183 yards and an INT. Granted, if you’re going to pressure Barrett you HAVE to get home; he will kill the Huskers with his legs given the chance. Stuff the middle, take away the run game, and get to Barrett. That’s job number one.
- Don’t get fancy on offense. The offense works best without trickeration or misdirection; no fly sweeps or end arounds needed, because they seem to go the other direction. Time to get the O-Line to man up and push the Buckeye’s off the line of scrimmage. Pound away with Devine Ozigbo and Jaylin Bradley until the Bucks put nine men in the box, then hit with play action. Oh, and make sure that the player going deep is JD Spielman, since he has the best speed and the best hands.
- Make sure to have a secondary plan to take advantage of Buckeye adjustments. The genius of Tom Osborne wasn’t in his play calling, but in his planning. Once he saw what the opponent was ready for, he adjusted his play calling. But not only that, he was ready to change his plays again to stay one step ahead of his opponent. The Huskers have tended to try and stick with plays the opposition has figured out; that’s a reflection of a “pro” style offense, since the pro’s tend to try and practice a certain play until its perfect. College kids can’t do that. Plus, college teams don’t have the formations, shifts, etc to hide the play that a pro team can put on. If we see any more screen passes to the RB’s this week, watch out.
Will they listen to me? I doubt it, but I will tag them for the post. We’ll see. Will I pick Nebraska to win? Well…I want them to win. Riley needs them to win. It would make everyone very happy. But realistically…
The Pick (and I’m probably going to hell) Ohio State 49, Nebraska 24.
Purdue at Wisconsin. Would it be weird if Purdue won this? The Boilermakers are pretty obviously the most improved team in the Big 10 this year. Despite knocking off Nebraska, I don’t think any Badger fan was particularly impressed with the teams performance. It took some boneheaded and stubborn play calls on defense for Nebraska for a quarter and a half for Wisconsin to win. Seriously…if your team is down two scores and the opposing team has a good running game and a questionable QB, do you continue to drop into coverage? I didn’t think so either. The problem is that while Purdue is better on offense, they aren’t much better on defense. The Badger defense is decent, and should be able to hold serve against Purdue at least 50% of the time. I don’t think Purdue can do the same.
The Pick: Wisconsin 31, Purdue 20.
Northwestern at Maryland. This one keys on the health of Max Bortenshlager, the former third string and now starting QB for the Terrapins. He’s not great, but if he can’t go this week after getting knocked out of the game against Ohio State last week, they’ll be trotting out the fourth string QB Caleb Henderson. To put that in terms we (in Nebraska) would understand better, that would be equivalent to Tanner Lee, Patrick O’Brien, and Tristan Gebbia getting hurt and Andrew Bunch coming out as the starter. Well, not quite; Henderson at least is a scholarship player, while Bunch is a walk on. Without the top QB’s, Maryland’s offense has not worked. Luckily Northwestern’s defense isn’t the best either, but Northwestern’s offense is far more experienced. Neither team is very good right now. Northwestern needs a win more.
The Pick: Northwestern 31, Maryland 24
Michigan State at Minnesota. Well, I was wrong. I wrote off Michigan State after they lost to Notre Dame. After that, the Spartan defense has woken up and shut down Iowa and Michigan in successive weeks, allowing just 24 total points. Okay, granted, neither of those teams is anywhere near an offensive juggernaut, but its still impressive to beat two Big 10 teams by shutting down their offenses. Minnesota is showing marked improvement in the first year under PJ Fleck, but they’ve started to show some cracks in the new facade. They’ve lost two in a row now, to Maryland and Purdue. Minnesota doesn’t have the passing game to keep Michigan State from stuffing their run game. Michigan State will be able to move the ball and score on Minnesota. That’s the game.
The Pick: Michigan State 27, Minnesota 14.
Washington State at California. Cal, in theory, has the offense to keep up with Washington State and the defense to slow them down. But that’s only theory. Not only is the Cougar passing game humming at its normal high level, averaging 392 yards per game, but the defense is only allowing 275 yards and 18 points per game. This will be an entertaining game on Friday night, but I think Washington State takes the win. Just don’t forget…Wazzu ALWAYS loses at least one game they shouldn’t.
The Pick: Washington State 42, California 27.
Utah at USC. Utah hopes Tyler Huntley is able to go at QB this week. Huntley beat out multi year starter Troy Williams at the beginning of the season, before suffering a shoulder injury against Arizona that kept him out of the game against Stanford last week. Williams struggled last week against Stanford, and the USC defense is going to be just as hard to be consistent against. Sam Darnold and Company should be able to score for the Trojans, so unless Williams (or Huntley, but that doesn’t seem likely right now) can keep up, this will be a long game for Utah.
The Pick: USC 31, Utah 14.
South Carolina at Tennessee. Tennessee has had two weeks to stew on the 41-0 loss to Georgia. South Carolina just beat floundering Arkansas 48-22. Neither team is particularly good on offense, both averaging around 335 yards per game. Neither defense is good either, with Tennessee allowing 381 yards per game and South Carolina giving up 394 yards per game. However, the Gamecock offense has been improving, whereas Tennessee has not. Giving this one to the Gamecocks.
The Pick: South Carolina 27, Tennessee 21.
Auburn at LSU. Well, too many teams have “Tiger” as their name/mascot. So the Tigers are going to win this one. Old joke, sorry. I’m not a fan of the Auburn offense, right now. For being an offensive wunderkind, coach Gus Malzahn hasn’t been able to put up the offensive numbers that he did with Cam Newton running the offense. It’s been better this year with Jarrett Stidham as QB, but still inconsistent. On the other hand, the defense under DC Kevin Steele is the real deal. The D is allowing 287 yards per game right now, which includes games against prolific offenses like Clemson, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Mississippi. As much as I don’t appreciate Auburn’s offense right now, LSU’s is worse. QB Danny Etling is marginal at best, and poor recruiting under Les Miles left the cupboard bare at the position. RB Derrius Guice, the lynchpin of the LSU offense, has been injured this season, forcing LSU to play other RB’s that aren’t quite as good. The LSU defense has been stellar (except against Mississippi State) but the offense hasn’t been enough to allow LSU breathing room. The 17-16 win against Florida was nice, but it was an illusion; one missed extra point was the difference, not outstanding offensive play. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see LSU win this; the Auburn offense can break down against top flight defenses, so in a defensive slugfest LSU has as good a chance as any. But I think Auburn takes this in Death Valley.
The Pick: Auburn 24, LSU 14.
Texas A&M at Florida. Florida’s offensive woes continue to cost them games. A mediocre offense would have won last week; as good as the LSU defense is, to go over a quarter and a half without at least moving into Field Goal range is ridiculous. The QB’s aren’t even throwing for 200 or more yards a game right now, averaging 191 yards, and the running game is inconsistent at best. Texas A&M doesn’t have a problem with their offense, per se, but its far more run oriented than normal as they work through the growing pains associated with having a freshman QB. Kellen Mond is the Aggie offense right now, completing 57 % of his passes for 1,045 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s, while running for 266 yards and two TD’s. That’s good enough for third on the team rushing now. Even more promising for Aggie fans, Mond dissected the Alabama defense last week, completing 65% of his passes for 237 yards and a TD. Granted the IN THE threw probably ended up being the difference in the game, but I’d say his performance is definitely trending up. ESPN projects a Florida win, and the line favors Florida at home. I just don’t see it; I don’t see Florida scoring enough to keep up with Texas A&M.
The Pick: Texas A&M 30, Florida 20.
Games of Note that didn’t quite make the cut:
Clemson at Syracuse. Trap game, anyone? Syracuse is good enough on offense to cause Clemson problems. Plus, it’s a short week and Clemson’s QB Kelly Bryant has a bum ankle.
North Carolina State at Pittsburgh. Just as Max Browne was rounding into shape and showing off the skill that made him a 5 star prospect when he committed to USC, he breaks his collarbone and is lost for the season. The problem, though, for North Carolina State is: Does that make Pitt better, or worse?
Texas Tech at West Virginia. It may not be the seven OT game that Buffalo and Western Michigan played last week, but we can hope.
Michigan at Indiana. Michigan is bound to be peeved this week after losing to Michigan State, but Indiana is good enough to make them pay if they aren’t focused.
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss. Vandy has lost three straight and needs a win to pull out of the dive. There are probably three more wins in the next six, but getting one against Mississippi would be nice.
UCLA at Arizona. Too early to say this is a must win game for both teams, but its close. UCLA needs a win for bowl placement, while Rich Rodriguez needs a win to keep his job at Arizona.
Bugeaters Picks:
Florida St 38, Duke 13
Miami 35, Georgia Tech 17
TCU 48, KSU 27
OU 56, Texas 21
Ohio St 53, Nebraska 24
Wisconsin 24, Purdue 7
Maryland 31, Northwestern 16
Michigan St 41, Minnesota 31
Washington St 47, Cal 17
USC 34, Utah 31
South Carolina 27, Tennessee 21
Auburn 30, LSU 24
Florida 26, Texas A&M 17
Imjustamonkey’s Picks:
I’m up to my eyeballs in AC Theory homework so I need to do these quick and get back to it.
Florida State at Duke
Winner – Florida State
Georgia Tech at Miami
Winner – Miami
TCU at Kansas State
Winner – TCU
Oklahoma at Texas
Winner – Oklahoma
Ohio State at Nebraska
Winner – Ohio State
Purdue at Wisconsin
Winner – Wisconsin
Northwestern at Maryland
Winner – Maryland (Matt C Note: Okay, seriously…did neither of my friends see that Maryland could be playing their fourth string QB this week? What did I miss? Just odd in a week where we all seemed to pick the same.)
Michigan State at Minnesota
Winner – Michigan State
Washington State at California
Winner – Washington State
Utah at USC
Winner – USC
South Carolina at Tennessee
Winner – South Carolina
Auburn at LSU
Winner – Auburn
Texas A&M at Florida
Winner – Texas A&M
That’s it for now. Watch for a new post on Sunday night.
Matt C 