Hello All!
Yes, I have managed three posts in a week; that never happens. But can it continue? Well, we’re done now with analysis by position. So we’ll have to see. I’ll aim for two posts per week up until the football season starts. Anyone who wants to participate in Pickem this year with Imjustamonkey and Bugeater this year, please let me know.
We’re going to talk DST today. The best for last. Seriously, even the worst DST group is going to average more than 20 PPG. Okay, so Kansas didn’t last year; they averaged 18.36. But that’s Kansas. Getting one of the Elite DST’s can win you the game. And with 14 players in my league this year, that means that the winner of the league gets $240 this year. So if you don’t think an Elite DST is worth taking, well, you’re wrong.
Rankings are as follows:
- Elite: Pick these players/DST’s. They are worth taking at the expense of other positions or players because they are so much better than their counterparts. (One note: Defense/Special Teams are, on average, worth more, points per game wise, than any other position. EXCEPT for Elite players; anyone ranked Elite have a chance to be worth more than a DST. An Elite DST? Worth taking ahead of any other) From a very general perspective, I project these players to produce over 25 points per game for fantasy purposes. QB’s tend to dominate this ranking
- Tier 1: These are top quality starters, but not quite special; think the difference between Lamar Jackson and, say, John Wolford at Wake Forest last year. Wolford was a surprise, since the Demon Deacon’s don’t usually produce top quality Fantasy QB’s, gaining 302 Fantasy points, averaging 27.45 Points per Game. But Jackson’s 483 points/40.25 PPG eclipsed that by a fair margin. QB’s and RB’s dominate this ranking; any WR’s listed as Tier 1 are worth grabbing early
- Tier 2: Starters and top quality backups. These players are worth picking up, but unless you need them they can wait till later in the draft. WR’s dominate this ranking; remember in college, even a Number One WR may have games without catches because they are being double covered and another receiver takes advantage. Any TE listed here is a must have.
Elite:
- It seems kinda anticlimactic, but when your team has the most depth and the best players in the nation, it translates into a top defense. However, last year was an aberration, as Alabama finished the regular season as the 6th ranked Fantasy DST. Alabama’s DST turned it on after that, which means the Tide turns it up against top opponents. So be it. This DST is still the class of Fantasy Football.
- Okay, so Wisconsin loses a lot on the defensive side; the strength of the Badger DST is the Linebacker corps, and that should rock again this year. The Badgers were the #1 ranked Fantasy DST last year, and should be a star again this year.
- Penn State. Penn State finished last season as the #2 ranked Fantasy DST, but lost 8 starters. I’d rank them a ton lower because of that, but the team had a ridiculous 19 players get double-digit tackle numbers last year, and 11 of those players come back. So yeah; Penn State will be good again.
- The Horned Frogs had a one year dropoff in DST production in 2016, then came roaring back last year. The only problem they might run into is that they play in the Big 12; top DST numbers are hard sometimes when other teams bomb away.
Tier One:
- The Huskies have proven to be resilient under Chris Petersen. That should continue this year.
- Virginia Tech. On the Con side, the defense will have a ton of Underclassmen playing this year, so experience is lacking. On the Pro side, DC Bud Foster will offset lack of experience by playing fast and aggressive; pressure the opposing team, and it doesn’t matter that your players don’t have much experience. Keep in mind that “explosive” plays don’t impact Fantasy scores, while INT’s and fumble recoveries do. They might give up big plays, but they’ll get turnovers.
- Clemson has a defensive every bit as good as Alabama. But, from the Fantasy side, they never seem to be quite as good at racking up fantasy points. That’s good for Clemson, since no coach should value fantasy scores as much as winning games. But be a trifle cautious taking the Clemson DST.
- Ohio State. On talent alone, the Ohio State DST should be an elite DST. But no Urban Meyer DST EVER stays at the top of the Fantasy rankings.
- Miami. While the whole Miami team seems energized by coach Mark Richt, it is most evident on Defense.
- Georgia. Coach Kirby Smart is a defensive coach; his defenses reflect that. Add in the talent now on the Georgia squad and the ‘Dawg DST will be strong this year.
- LSU. The biggest recruiting battle of the winter for coach Ed Orgeron was keeping DC Dave Aranda. Aranda was courted by multiple teams, notably Texas A&M, but ultimately stayed at LSU. That was huge for the LSU DST.
- Michigan. Okay, so the Wolverine offense has regressed badly under Jim Harbaugh. The defense hasn’t.
Tier Two:
- Texas. Crazy as it seems, Texas ended the Fantasy regular season ranked 8th overall as a DST. If you need a backup DST, you could do far worse.
- Iowa State. So the Cyclones lost Joel Lanning. So what? Iowa State under Matt Campbell is poised for a big year, and the DST should deliver.
- Mississippi State. The Bulldogs won’t be as good as under Dan Mullen, but the talent is still there.
- Auburn. Kevin Steele will have a good defense at Auburn. But watch for letdown games.
- USC. Talent alone puts USC this high
- Iowa. Not a fan, because the Iowa defense tends to be a “grinder” D; hold down the opposing offense and grind out a win. But that translates into low scoring games, which is good for Fantasy scores.
- Northwestern. For a team that doesn’t always get the most depth, the Northwestern D plays big.
- Michigan State. A Mark Dantonio coached defense should play better than this rank, but they haven’t been that great the last few years.
- Washington State. Last year, the Cougar DST ended up ranked 12th That’s the highest ever for a Mike Leach team. They have the talent to get that high again, but offseason scandal and problems may have affected the team more than reported.
- Wake Forest. A Demon Deacon team that has both talent and depth is a dangerous team.
- South Carolina. Never sleep on a defense coached by Will Muschamp
- Texas A&M. Kevin Sumlin never seemed to understand the concept of the “Wreckin’ Crew” defense. Be assured new coach Jimbo Fisher understands.
Best of the Rest
Boston College. Well, the Eagles are built to grind out games and keep scores low. But don’t look for a bunch of takeaways.
Kansas State. Bill Snyder coached teams are always potentially great on defense, but playing in the Big 12 makes taking this DST a gamble.
Nebraska. So, the transition to a 3-4 defense last year went badly, as coach Diaco apparently didn’t know how to fit his players into the slots well enough to even coach them up. With all that being said, at least the players understand the concepts now, and new DC Erik Chinander has depth and experience to play with.
Missouri. Every few years the Missouri DST rises up and scores a lot of Fantasy points. But I have no idea what the criteria is for that, or when it will happen.
Stanford. Stanford finished last season the 36th ranked Fantasy DST. That is crazy; they are too disciplined and physical to end up like that. But I have no measurables to say they’ll finish too much higher.
Florida State. Last season was a disaster, as far as the defense was concerned. The talent exists for a quick turnaround, but the coaching change might affect that more.
Okay, so that’s done. Here are more hints and tips for your Fantasy draft prep.
- First, make sure to do some prep. Prep for a draft does not mean showing up at the draft with an Athlon college sports magazine. Then you’ll be the guy taking the most time scrolling through team by team to get somebody who hasn’t already been taken. I mean seriously, I just provided you with 159 players and 30 DST’s to pick from. If you have a 12 team draft, with 15 rounds, that means you need 180 names. If you add in a few kickers from your own research, I’ve given you just about everything you need.
- Oh, and I didn’t rank kickers. Know why? The top ranked Kicker last year, Matt Ammendola of Oklahoma State, averaged 11.46 Points per game last year. The Twentieth ranked kicker, Austin Parker of Duke, averaged 7.08 Points per game. So you can get asimilar performance from any kicker…as long as he plays. Every year there is at least one kicker who ends up losing his job last minute and never playing. If pressed, I would recommend looking for the following:
- Teams that score a lot of points. Think Washington State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Etc. Those kickers will get a lot of extra points.
- Look for teams that have trouble in the red zone scoring. The teams mentioned above could count for that, along with Duke, Boston College, or even Auburn. Kickers who get a chance for a lot of Field Goals are worth more, since scoring is based on points produced. 3 field goals are worth more than 7 extra points.
- Okay, you want some names? I like Ammendola a lot. Matt Gay of Utah should be decent. Austin Siebert of Oklahoma, Sean Nuernberger of Ohio State, and Daniel Lacamera of Texas A&M jump out. Watch for Ricky Aguayo of Florida State as well.
- What does a good roster look like after a draft? That’s open to interpretation. It depends on what you want to accomplish. My roster generally looks like this: 3 QB’s, 4 RB’s, 5 WR’s, One TE, One DST, One Kicker. That gives me flexibility at QB in case of a bust, multiple RB options, and flexibility at WR. However, the con to this roster is that if I hit a weekend where my TE, DST, or Kicker are inactive, I have to either drop that player to take another (problematic for a DST, doable for TE and Kicker) or hold up valuable roster space by taking another player for one week. You have to decide what’s most important to your weekly play.
Okay, that’s it for now. Watch for a new post mid week!