Hello everyone!
Hope you’ve enjoyed my posts the last few weeks. Here’s the last preseason ranking post. Today, we’re talking Defense/Special Teams.
DST: Defense/Special teams will win games for you. Can you win your league without a top DST? Perhaps; it depends on the scoring system used. Two years ago, the league was won by a guy who maxed out his top players, but didn’t grab a top DST. He tried again last year, and didn’t make the playoffs. With my league, DST averaged 33 PPG last year. There are players that will average more than that, but that’s rare; thus I have my “Elite” rating. Otherwise, DST, especially for leagues that count punt return TD’s, can be extremely positive toward winning your weekly games.
Top of the Charts: Two DST’s stand out above all others.
- Alabama. The Crimson Tide have the most talent and the best defensive scheme in college football. That translates into dominant DST points…usually. Beware the letdown games, as Alabama can get caught in a game that doesn’t mean as much and have a lesser opponent gain a lot of yards and points. But in big games, there isn’t a better DST to have.
- Clemson. The two are just about interchangeable. In truth, Clemson would seem to have the slightly better schemes, while Alabama has slightly more talent, but that may change over the next few years. In any event, if you have the chance to grab either team, I encourage you to do so ahead of any other DST or player.
Top Tier candidates: After the first two, the rest of the DST’s cluster. That’s okay, though, since if you get any of these teams for your DST you’ll probably be pretty happy.
- Iowa. The Hawkeye’s snuck up on the overall league last year, outperforming their historical average by a large amount. Can they do it again this year? Considering they didn’t turn over much of the defense, I’d say that’s a yes.
- Auburn. Kevin Steele isn’t the best head coach, but he is a fantastic Defensive Coordinator. And that showed last year. Auburn has the talent to be a top DST, but unless the offense recovers its mojo this year that will lower the DST output a tad.
- Mississippi State. The Bulldogs held some high impact offenses in check last year. They held Texas A&M to 13 points. They allowed 24 points to Alabama. They throttled Arkansasholding the razorbacks to 6 points, and pummeled their nemesis Mississippi, allowing the Rebels 3 points in the egg bowl. Defensively, the team is great. They need to improve on special teams; no DST TD’s hurt them overall.
- Georgia. Kirby Smart is a pretty good defensive coach, so this seems like a good place for the Bulldogs. Georgia and Mississippi State are about equal, but Mississippi State gets the nod because they were significantly better than Georgia last year, from a fantasy perspective. Realistically, you can’t go wrong with the Bulldogs.
- What has hurt the Wolverines hasn’t been talent or scheme; what has hurt is an offense that can’t produce points consistently, and can’t always move the ball, leaving the defense in bad positions. Until Michigan shows that has changed in a big game this year, I’ve got them ranked slightly lower overall.
- Another team that battled way out of their weight class last season, finishing ranked 8th overall. That is so far above their statistical norm, I can hardly quantify it. I’d anticipate them being just as good this year.
- Normally the cream of the PAC 12, last year was aberrant, finishing ranked 22nd overall. But the whole team seemed off last year. This might be too high, but based on the talent level and coach, Washington deserves a top ten ranking.
- I’d have had Miami drop farther IF they hadn’t managed to drag Manny Diaz back as coach. With Diaz at the helm, not only is there some continuity at the top, but a defensive minded coach takes over. The Hurricanes should remain one of the top DST in the nation.
- Ohio State. Ohio State’s offense surpasses Michigan’s offense so much that, comparing the two, you forget that while Ohio State has the talent, they don’t quite have the same defensive chops the Wolverines do. We’ll see what happens without Greg Schiano as DC.
- Michigan State. We’ve reached the Big 10 portion of the ratings. Michigan State has better schemes and coaching, but they don’t quite have the talent Ohio State does. So I like Ohio State better.
- WHAT?!? Why are the Huskers here? Bear with me…I have some reasons. As bad as the Huskers were last year, they actually finished the season above average, ranked 21st. This isn’t “defensive” ranking, but fantasy ranking. The 11 INT’s helped raise their score, despite a ridiculous amount of points allowed. By every measure, the Huskers have increased their talent and ability on defense heading into the season. So while I am a Husker fan, I’m not putting them here just for that reason; I think year two NebraskaFrost has the chance to be much better.
- This is a no brainer as well, although LSU has a ways to go to regain their status as a top five DST.
Best of the Rest: So, realistically, you don’t need to carry two DST’s; you only play one per week, and right now you end up with only one bye week every year. You can get a replacement DST if necessary; carrying two just provided you trade bait, and in college leagues that doesn’t matter at all…too many teams to choose from. (Seriously, I think we’ve had one player to player trade in the last 8 years…just one. Compare that to the trades that occur in pro leagues.)
Anyway, the remaining teams are pretty similar; to choose between them, you’d need to evaluate their talent level AND the competition. If you’re going to cover a bye week, best available will work, but only if they have favorable opponents. In other words…you might like Pitt facing Rutgers one week, rather than TCU facing Oklahoma. Even though TCU generally has the better defense, the respective opponents are so different its worthwhile to play Pittsburgh instead.
Here are the Sleepers that might come into play down the road.
Texas. Only problem for Texas is playing in the Big 12, so the chance to get lit up week by week is pretty big. But when they’re on, they are comparable with a top ten DST.
TCU. Same situation. But TCU doesn’t have the talent that Texas does, although arguably they are better coached.
Utah. If the Utes ever get a season where they don’t lose significant numbers of players to injuries, they would break out and win the PAC 12. Hasn’t happened yet.
Washington State. Still waiting to see if the departure of Alex Grinch is going to really affect the Cougars DST potential. So far, only marginally.
California. So far in the tenure of Justin Wilcox, the defense is head and shoulders stronger than the offense. Which is both good and bad, since the offense is so bad that the defense is left in bad positions.
Boston College. The Golden Eagles have the skill to be a top ranked DST, but the talent isn’t quite there.
Well, thats all of the rankings. Is this complete? In a word…no.
I’ll try to update with a new top 200 or so before the season starts…and being honest, the new season starts in just over two months. I have my work cut out for me.
Other Notes:
- Don’t be concerned if you don’t agree with my rankings. I’m used to it. Sometimes I hit big, sometimes I miss. You know what I’m best at picking? Running backs. I’m worst at picking WR’s, at least outside the actual top of the chart.
- Actually, I’m pretty poor once you get past the top 40 or so in each position. If you are trying to get late draft options, I very rarely make the right calls. Why? Because most of the late picks are based on conjecture; based on a projection, or a hunch, or even just based on the team. As an example, in 2018, I drafted the following WR’s for my Tres Chico’s team: 5th round, Denzel Mims, Baylor. 6th Round, Tyron Johnson, Oklahoma State. 9th Round, TJ Simmons, West Virginia. 11th Round, Taivon Jacobs, Maryland. 12th Round, Marquez Callaway, Tennessee. Mims ended the season as the 43rd ranked WR; Ouch. Johnson ended up 38th. Simmons was 208th, Jacobs 190th, and Callaway 133rd. Simmons and Jacobs were washouts, while Callaway was acceptable for where I drafted him. The moral of the story? Even if you are convinced a player is going to be fantastic, be prepared to change when that isn’t the case.
- My best example was my worst season ever, in 2009. I ended up drafting first, and picked Sam Bradford with my first pick. Keep in mind that in serpentine drafts, you have a very small window of advantage, since you pick first, but then have to wait till the end of second round to take your second pick. Bradford had ended 2008 with 4464 pass yards, 48 TD’s, and only 6 INT’s, along with 5 rush TD’s. He lasted a game and a half. After that, I was lost, because I didn’t have a backup QB to take his place AND I missed out on taking his backup QB. Even if I had, Landry Jones was at best 2/3 the player Bradford was, so not an apples/apples comparison. I ended up winning 3 games that season, and I wasn’t competitive. Moral of this story? Don’t be so fixated on one player that you don’t have a viable plan B. (Secondary moral: A DST or RB are usually better picks early, because there are a lot more top tier options for those slots and you have less impact if you pick badly.)
- As always, feel free to contact me if you would wish to play in my league. I haven’t started harassing my members…yet. But its coming.
- THAT’S RIGHT! BE AWARE! I’LL BE HARASSING YOU SOON TO SEND IN ENROLLMENT FEES!
- If anyone is interested in participating in an NFL league, I am open to that, but I’d need enough participation to set one up. You need at least eight players to have a good league. If you’re interested, leave me a note.
- Final Disclosure: I will be away from my desk until Mid July do to summer and vacations, in that order. Feel free to send me messages, but I may not get back to them until July 15th or so.
Thats all for now. Have a great day, and stay tuned!