Hello to all my loyal readers!
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This week, our newest Pickem member, BigRedinBlueCountry, made the game choices. And he made some interesting choices. A lot of them too; guess he figured two straight weeks with less than 13 picks made it worth his while to choose fifteen this week. So, with a lot of ground to cover, lets get started.
Matt C’s Picks.
Nebraska at Michigan. Aiii yiii yi. This game becomes marginally manageable for the Huskers if Adrian Martinez is full speed. By all indications, while he is practicing and probably able to play, he’s not full speed. He is also the future of the program; you don’t put a true freshman at the wheel if you aren’t intending him to be your captain for four straight years. So what does Nebraska do? It will have to be something different than what they trotted out against Troy, or this game will be ugly. UGLY, I said. I mean, ESPN is giving Michigan a 94.5% chance of winning this one. BUT…who has Michigan beaten? Western Michigan and SMU? Um…yeah. Nebraska is better than those two teams. Especially on defense, and a weak SMU team put up 20 points on Michigan last week. If Nebraska can get the offense going, they can probably score. I’d argue that Nebraska’s defense is the toughest Michigan has faced since Notre Dame; they lost that game. Will it come down to which defense can smack the offense in the mouth hard enough to cause them to stumble? The Huskers are angry; they know they are better than 0-2. But Nebraska needs something different on offense…even if Martinez plays, because even if he plays he’s not going to be mobile enough to perform like he did against Colorado. But Husker coaches know that, and they’re going to prove they can continue to think outside of the box.
The Pick: Nebraska 20, Michigan 17.
Texas A&M at Alabama. Before I’d take A&M against Alabama, I’d need to see the Aggies score more than 26 points against a top defense. Alabama has held Louisville to 14 points, Arkansas State to 7 points, and Mississippi to 7 points. Texas A&M is about equal to Ole Miss in terms of offense; this may be a particularly rough start to the Jimbo Fisher era in the SEC.
The Pick: Alabama 56, Texas A&M 7.
Wisconsin at Iowa. Okay, so Wisconsin lost last week. Before we start bemoaning the Badger’s lost season, lets keep in mind that BYU is not your average non-conference opponent. They are far better than the MAC or Sun Belt teams of the US; they have a shot to win any game they play. That being said, they did perhaps provide a blueprint for the rest of the Big 10 to implement to beat Wisconsin this year: Stack the line of scrimmage, stuff the run game, make Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook have to hit passes to win, and get pressure. Now, not all teams can do that; but if they do, Wisconsin is beatable. Iowa has the defense to do just that. And I’d argue that the Iowa offense, as boring at it is, is stronger and deeper than BYU’s last week.
The Pick: Iowa 21, Wisconsin 19.
Arizona State at Washington. The honeymoon for Herm Edwards ended after two weeks. Last week, San Diego State held on to the ball for over 36 minutes of the game and kept the Arizona State offense off the field. Oh, and they made sure the running game didn’t work; Sun Devil QB Manny Wilkins had 341 yards two pass TD’s, and one rush TD, but the team managed 24 carries for 36 yards on the night. That’s not going to get it done against a Washington team built to keep you off the field and beat your best offense.
The Pick: Washington 28, Arizona State 14.
Georgia at Missouri. Georgia definitely has the experience to win this one for the year. They’ve already knocked off a decent South Carolina team 41-17. Missouri’s best win came against Purdue last week, and a 40-37 win against a lower level Big 10 team just isn’t the same. However, Georgia hasn’t faced an offense like the Tiger’s yet. Missouri is averaging 587 yards of offense per game right now, and just under 200 per game is on the ground. So a balanced offense that can put up a ton of points against the vaunted Bulldog defense may be more of a challenge then Georgia expects. I don’t think Georgia loses this, but it may be a lot tighter than anyone else believes.
The Pick: Georgia 39, Missouri 37.
Stanford at Oregon. Both teams are undefeated. Oregon has more star power on offense, centered on QB Justin Herbert. Stanford has Bryce Love carrying the ball at RB, and KJ Costello throwing the ball. Costello has been better than expected this year, but its really coming down to whether teams can stop Love or not. I don’t think Oregon can.
The Pick: Stanford 31, Oregon 24.
Northern Illinois at Florida State. How the mighty have fallen. Florida State, at home in Doak Campbell stadium, facing the might Northern Illinois Huskies, are getting ten points as a favorite. Ten points. A TD and a Field goal against a MAC team that is 1-2 and hasn’t mustered much if any offense yet this year. Don’t get me wrong, Northern Illinois is a quality opponent, but they haven’t handled any Power 5 opponent yet this year, losing to Iowa 33-7 and Utah 17-6. The Seminoles are in shambles though, and looked particularly bad last week against Syracuse, losing 30-7 and not really seeming to care. Issues with buying in to Willie Taggarts program seem to be impacting the team, and the coaches are floundering. All that being said, a Northern Illinois team that managed 284 yards against Central Michigan last week in a win won’t be able to do much against the maligned but still talented Seminole defense.
The Pick: Florida State 21, Northern Illinois 7.
Louisville at Virginia. Just looking at this game, I’m grimacing. Louisville has looked anything but sharp, losing badly to Alabama to start the season and needing everything they had to pull past Western Kentucky last week. The Lamar Jackson-Less offense is averaging 307 yards per game, while the defense is giving up 386. That’s not a recipe for success. Virginia, on the other hand, had to pull out all the stops to beat MAC heavyweight Ohio last week, and lost to Indiana the week before. Virginia’s offense is doing better on paper though, averaging a very balanced 446 yards per game, while the defense is only allowing 325. So in a game that looks just plain blah, I’m going with the better averages.
The Pick: Virginia 28, Louisville 24.
Kansas at Baylor. Um, I know I picked KU to win last week against Rutgers…but I didn’t expect THAT! 55-14 wasn’t just a win; that was the release of some major built up anger. Can they keep it up? Baylor is still getting out of the mess that Art Briles left. While the offense is plenty prolific right now, they haven’t beaten anyone yet. UT San Antonio? Abilene Christian? The one game against a quality opponent was Duke, and Duke beat them pretty good. If it turns out that KU coach David Beatty was right, and that it was just going to take time to turn KU around, I may have to eat my hat. KU wins a shootout.
The Pick: Kansas 38, Baylor 35.
TCU at Texas. And who among you thought Texas would clobber USC 37-14? Uh huh, put your hands down…no one thought they’d dominate the Trojans. Well, perhaps except for the Longhorns and coach Tom Herman. I’m not sure what ESPN’s football power index ate for breakfast, but its giving some weird indicators; it has Texas having a 60% chance of winning this game. Strange, since bettors don’t agree, favoring TCU at Royal Memorial Stadium by three. TCU put up 28 points on Ohio State; I don’t see Texas defense being as good.
The Pick: TCU 42, Texas 28.
Florida at Tennessee. Really? We’re going here? Neither team is particularly good. Florida’s offense is floundering, and the defense wasn’t able to stop Kentucky. Tennessee lost to West Virginia to start the season, and while the defense has shut down the last two games for the Vols, no one is really thinking keeping UTEP and Eastern Tennessee State to 3 points total means much. This one is a tossup. I’m taking the favorite in an ugly, ugly game.
The Pick: Florida 17, Tennessee 14.
Washington State at USC. If USC is going to salvage their season, they need to win this game. Otherwise, the wheels may very well come off and they will have a new coach this time next year. Its been ugly this year, without a good gameplan on offense and terrible defensive play. Washington State QB Gardner Minshew already has 1,200 passing yards. He’s on track for over 4,800 yards. That’s a good season by anyone’s standards. Can the USC defense that allowed Texas 394 yards and 34 unanswered points handle this type of offense. Even though USC is the favorite now by 3.5 points, would anyone consider this an upset?
The pick: Washington State 56, USC 24.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State. Can Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury coach himself off the hot seat? Texas Tech fans don’t care if they don’t have a functional defense; they care about winning games. And if they win shootouts, fine, but as long as they win more than they lose they’re okay with that. Houston last week was a quality opponent, and while the defense didn’t win the game, it did stop the Cougars enough for the offense to outscore the Cougars, and win the game. Oklahoma State has a better defense overall (Ed Oliver aside, the Houston DT is just plain tough to handle, but he can’t play every position on the line) and the offenses are just about equal. So while I’d like to take Texas Tech, I’m going Cowboys with this one. But Alan Bowman and Tyler Cornelius put on a show through the air.
The Pick: Oklahoma State 63, Texas Tech 56.
Mississippi State at Kentucky. Hmmm. Mississippi State has Nick Fitzgerald. Kentucky has Benny Snell Jr, and new QB Terry Wilson. Neither team throws the ball as much as they run the ball; both average more rushing yards than passing yards. Both Defenses are working pretty well, with Mississippi State handling Kansas State without and problems and only allowing 10 points, while Kentucky punched out Florida, allowing 16 points. But Mississippi State is simply better in both areas. And Kroger Field in Lexington just isn’t that intimidating a venue for opposing teams. Mississippi State State wins.
The Pick: Mississippi State 40, Kentucky 28.
Pittsburgh at North Carolina. How the heck is ESPN giving North Carolina a 66% chance of a win here? The Tarheels have been owned the last two games, beaten physically by Cal in game one and embarrassed by ECU in game two. Okay, so they got a week off, thanks to Florence, but I doubt they qualify as “rested” now. Pittsburgh just beat Georgia Tech, and they played Penn State to a draw for a half. Pitt takes this one.
The Pick: Pitt 25, North Carolina 23.
Other games of note:
Notre Dame at Wake Forest. First game back for Kendall Hinton, against a Notre Dame team that’s highly ranked, but suspect. Should be fun to watch.
Boston College at Purdue. Anyone else notice that Anthony Brown of Boston College put up five TD’s last week against Wake Forest? I did, and picked him up for my fantasy league. Purdue may be the best 0-3 team in the nation right now.
Clemson at Georgia Tech. Anyone else see this game screaming “Trap Game!” at them? Clemson needed everything it had to beat Texas A&M, and then rested against Georgia Southern. Well, everyone except starting QB Kelly Hunter, who injured his ribs in the game and may not be able to go against Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is hard to prep for.
Kansas State at West Virginia. Wildcats need to right the ship, and besting 12th ranked West Virginia would do that. Then again, West Virginia is going to be tough to beat right now.
Minnesota at Maryland. Its been ugly, but Minnesota is 3-0 right now. No one expected Maryland to be playing as well as they have. 2-1 is quite an accomplishment considering the turmoil in the program. This is for decent bowl seeding.
Michigan State at Indiana. Michigan State has had two weeks to lick its wounds after getting beaten by Arizona State. Indiana is 3-0 and looking pretty decent. If Michigan State wants to keep its hopes alive in the Big Ten, this is a must win game. But Indiana is starting too look like a tough out.
Arizona at Oregon State. I want to see this one just to see if Oregon State RB Jermar Jefferson is that good. The Freshman has run for 391 yards and 6 TD’s so far, averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Oh, and Arizona is completely capable of losing this game.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt. Hey, for middle of the pack ranking in the SEC, you have to beat other mid rank teams. So this is a must win game for both teams.
Bugeater’s Picks:
Michigan 28, Nebraska 23
Alabama 41, Texas A&M 31
Iowa 21, Wisconsin 17
Washington 34, Arizona St 24
Georgia 30, Mizzou 27
Stanford 20, Oregon 16
Florida State 17, Northern Illinois 13
Louisville 45, Virginia 24
Baylor 51, Kansas 21
TCU 17, Texas 10
Tennessee 31, Florida 23
USC 49, Washington State 31
Oklahoma St 47, Texas Tech 42
Mississippi St 38, Kentucky 28
Pitt 24, North Carolina 21
BigRedinBlueCountry’s Picks:
Apologies for my picks coming reeeeeeeeally late, large amounts of homework came in the way of making the picks earlier.
Big Red in Blue Country
Week 3 Reflection
- Apparently I’m just really good at breaking even. I advanced what was a 12-12 record to an 18-18. Also I’m still tied for last, but at least at this time, I’m not outright last. Maybe I’ll get an advantage because I’m picking the games we pick this week.
- Also, I’m getting to pick the games this week! Yay! I think… My picks this week will be more of me justifying why I chose the games I did as opposed to why I picked the winning team.
- At the beginning of the season, I felt 6-6 was reachable for the Huskers. I was younger then, and it was a simpler time. I seriously don’t know if we can even get close to that mark now. More on that in the picks.
Week 4 Picks
- Nebraska @ Michigan: We can’t even beat Troy. So how in the world are the Huskers gonna beat Michigan? Well, the only way I see it is if we get Martinez back, and maybe not even then. I think he is honestly the key to winning; the earlier we get him back the better chance we have of going 6-6. But even if he’s healthy enough to play this weekend, I don’t think I can realistically take the Huskers. Score: Michigan 42 Nebraska 14
- Texas A&M @ Alabama: Well, honestly this should be a win for Bama, but I liked the potential for competitiveness between two ranked SEC teams. As always, though, the unstoppable Crimson Tide keeps on rollin.’ Score: Alabama 38 Texas A&M 24
- Wisconsin @ Iowa: One of the B1G’s 15,000 trophy games, of course I have to pick it. Unfortunately for the Badgers, they suffered a loss to unranked BYU (now ranked #25) on a last-second missed field goal. Wisconsin is out to prove they should still be ranked high, and Iowa is looking to show they should be ranked at all. I think the Badgers take out the Hawkeyes. Score: Wisconsin 28 Iowa 20
- Arizona State @ Washington: (Note: for the rest of these picks, I ran out of time to do a analysis for each one. College classes got the best of me. The rest of these will just be the score.) Washington 45 Arizona State 21
- Georgia @ Missouri: Georgia 41 Missouri 17
- Stanford @ Oregon: Stanford 21 Oregon 17
- Northern Illinois @ Florida State: Florida State 28 Northern Illinois 24
- Louisville @ Virginia: Virginia 31 Louisville 21
- Kansas @ Baylor: Kansas 28 Baylor 27
- TCU @ Texas: Texas 31 TCU 28
- Florida @ Tennessee: Florida 31 Tennessee 21
- Washington State @ USC: USC 35 Washington State 21
- Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State 35 Texas Tech 28
- Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Mississippi State 31 Kentucky 17
- Pittsburgh @ North Carolina: Pittsburgh 28 North Carolina 14
Imjustamonkey’s Picks:
I am dictating these pics on my phone over a series of morning and lunch breaks at work so please forgive any inexplicable typographical errors. (Matt C Note: And don’t worry, I left any and all typo’s in here.)
Nebraska @ Michigan
This is one of those games that I don’t want to pick. Nebraska has shown improvement under Scott Frost, but at the same time they are now riding a six game losing streak coming into the Big House. Even if Martinez plays and has the game of his life, there is still the issue of turnovers and penalties on this team that don’t seem to be getting fixed. Frost will get his first win soon enough, but I just don’t think it happens at Michigan.
Winner: Michigan
Texas A&M @ Alabama
Was Jimbo Fisher the right answer at Texas A&M? The jury is still out but Alabama continues to be Alabama, and they seem to be firing on all cylinders right now. I just don’t see an instance where I pick against them anytime soon.
Winner: Alabama
Wisconsin @ Iowa
Iowa is very quietly putting together a solid start to the season only allowing 24 points in the first three games. Wisconsin has something to prove after a shocking loss at home to BYU. Iowa City is turning into a difficult place for teams to come in and play but Wisconsin still has the edge on talent. This should be a fun one to watch.
Winner: Wisconsin
Arizona State @ Washington
The Sun Devils pulled off the upset against Michigan State and followed it up with a loss to San Diego State which I think says more about Michigan State than anything… More about that later. The Huskies should handle this one with a little trouble.
Winner: Washington
Georgia @ Missouri
Georgia has outscored their opponents 135 to 24. Missouri struggled to put away Purdue. You’re going to need a mop after this one.
Winner: Georgia
Stanford @ Oregon
Stanford picked up a 14 point win against USC which after last week looks somewhat less impressive, but Oregon has been largely untested so far. This should be a good one but I think the Cardinal come out on top.
Winner: Stanford
Northern Illinois @ Florida State
Neither of these teams are where I expected them to be at this point in the season. Northern Illinois has struggled to put points on the board. Florida State has allowed 80 points in three games. Something has to give. Call me crazy but I’m taking the Huskies with the upset.
Winner: Northern Illinois
Louisville @ Virginia
I really know very little about either of these teams right now. Louisville got trashed in a brutal opener against Alabama as one would expect. Virginia got their lone loss against an Indiana team that has exceeded expectations so far. UVA is putting up a few more points per game, allowing a few less, putting up more yards, and playing a little bit more defense. I think that’s the difference at home.
Winner: Virginia
Kansas @ Baylor
Baylor is still in rebuild mode but destroyed Kansas 38 to 9 in their only win last season. The Bears looked solid in two games against inferior competition but got a dose of reality last week with Duke. Kansas on the other hand is playing with something I haven’t seen from them in almost a decade: confidence. After dropping their opener to Nicholls, the Jayhawks have outscored their last two opponents 86 to 21. I don’t know what happened but this looks like a different team and I am about to do something I’ve never done in the entire time I’ve been doing these picks. I’m taking Kansas for the upset on the road.
Winner: Kansas
TCU @ Texas
ESPN gives Texas a 60.7% chance of beating TCU. I will remind ESPN that Texas lost to Maryland, only beat Tulsa by seven, and USC never should’ve been in the top 15 to start the season. TCU is scoring 41 points a game. They’re showing signs of getting back to the type of defense they’ve been known for. One win against an overrated opponent does not change the fact the Longhorns have looked less than impressive in two of their three games this season.
Winner: TCU
Florida @ Tennessee
Both of these teams are two and one by merit of playing a typical SEC out of conference schedule. If they have both failed their only tests of the season so far Tennessee being demolished by West Virginia and Florida losing to perennial SEC football powerhouse Kentucky. I have absolutely nothing to go by here so this game is my coin flip for the week. Heads goes to the home team.
Winner: Tennessee
Washington State @ USC
The cougars are 3-0 mostly by merit of three games against sub par competition. On the other hand, USC is 1-2, by merit of playing one game against sub par competition. There’s a completely different mindset that comes from playing on a team that is dominating everyone that they’ve played, sub par or not, versus a team that has been outscored 54-17 in their last two games. That mindset is going to be the difference here.
Winner: Washington State
Side note: Holy crap, how many games did you pick? (Matt C Note: Agreed, this was a mega week. Next week, I’ll get back to normal. Course, it took BigRedinBlueCountry extra time to get his picks in too…so go figure!)
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
If you have either of these defenses in your college fantasy league, sit them. These offenses are combining for 108.1 points per game and over 1,200 total yards. This one will be a track meet from start to finish and should be a lot of fun to watch. With what little defense I expect to see in this game, I expect a little more from the Cowboys in this one.
Winner: Oklahoma State
Mississippi State @ Kentucky
At 3-0 the Wildcats are off to a hot start, especially for them, and they’ve actually looked pretty good in the process. Unfortunately, Kentucky is about to run into 50 points per game from the Mississippi State offense. I just don’t think they’re going to be able to stop them and it may get out of hand.
Winner: Mississippi State
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina
There’s not much to break down on this one. Pitt got throttled by Penn State, but bounced back to win at home against Georgia Tech. North Carolina is 0-2 and lost their last game by 21 points to East Carolina. They lost to the Pirates of East Carolina. They lost to the team who lost their only other game to North Carolina A&T. Nobody should lose to a team that lost to North Carolina A&T. The Tar Heels are a mess… I guess is the main point that I’m trying to get across here.
Winner: Pitt
That’s all for now. Watch for updates on Sunday or Monday. Stay Tuned!