For those who are still with me, my apologies for the lack of posts this year. I know, you were waiting with baited breath for my weekly pickems and updates about the football season.
I took the year off.
Sorry about that.
Seriously, I simply didn’t have the time to devote over 5 hours of my week keeping up with posting about my picks on games every week. Plus, I found that…I didn’t really care. Oddly enough, even though I checked with the other pickers to make sure they were willing to play again…no one contacted me to find out why I hadn’t reached out for their picks. Kinda odd, but again, I wasn’t up in arms about it either.
Again, if you were heartsick and lost without me, I apologize. Again. Sincerely.
So, I have picks for the bowl games. Its just me; I’m not competing against anyone else, although you can watch me on ESPN as “matters3173”. Sorry this is coming out the day the bowl games start; again, took some time to get back into the groove.
I’ve rated these games by watchability. Read on!
I’d rather watch “Rise of Skywalker” Bowls: Okay, granted, I’m all in on watching Rise of Skywalker. I’m a Star Wars guy. But these bowl games just aren’t that interesting or even pivotal to anyone other than their fans.
Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Charlotte. 1:00 pm December 20. Buffalo has never won a bowl game. Charlotte is in its 1ST bowl game. And it’s the first game of the season. ***SNORE***. Buffalo wins.
Frisco Bowl: Utah State vs Kent State, 6:30 pm December 20. Well, Utah State has a good team, and Kent State is a feel good story. Otherwise, I got nothing. Utah State wins.
New Mexico Bowl: Central Michigan vs San Diego State, 1:00 pm December 21 The “directional” Michigan teams all did pretty well this year. But San Diego State only allows 12.8 points and 329 yards per game. That will not be pretty. San Diego State wins.
Cure Bowl: Liberty vs Georgia Southern, 1:30 pm December 21. If you like option football, Georgia Southern is where its at. Liberty allows 192 yards per game on the ground; Georgia Southern rushes for 260 yards per game. Georgia Southern wins.
Camellia Bowl: Florida International vs Arkansas State, 4:30 pm December 21. Both teams underwhelmed through the year, although the FIU win against Miami won the season for FIU. But Arkansas State beat Georgia Southern. Arkansas State wins.
New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State vs UAB, 8:00 pm December 21. I’d really like to want to watch this game. But I can’t. Appalachian State wins.
Quick Lane Bowl: Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan, 7:00 pm December 26. Pitt’s defense is going to win this game. And in defensive battles, color me bored. Pitt wins.
Servpro First Responder Bowl: Western Kentucky vs Western Michigan. 11:30 am December 30. Last year, the game was called for weather and deemed no contest. Hopefully this doesn’t happen again. A Western team is going to win. Lets go with the Michigan option, but I’m not really confident.
Armed Forces Bowl: Southern Mississippi vs Tulane. 10:30 am January 4. Who’s going to watch this game? It’s the Saturday after New Years; no one is going to care. That includes me. Tulane wins.
Lendingtree Bowl: Louisiana vs Miami (OH). 6:30 pm January 6th. Same Sitch. And Louisiana has an 81% chance of winning according to the ESPN Football Power Index. Louisiana wins.
Bowl Game? Well, its better than watching re-runs of “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” Bowls: I’m a sucker for Guy Fieri. I’ll admit it; I’ll watch “Triple D” if I’m not doing anything over just about anything other than Expedition Unknown. But if one of these games on, it trumps the dyed hair one. Barely.
Boca Raton Bowl: SMU vs Florida Atlantic, 2:30 pm December 21. This would be FAR more interesting if Lane Kiffin had held out for a better job than Mississippi and was still coaching for FAU. On the other hand, Sonny Dykes is holding out to see what’s left after the bowl game…if he wants to leave. As far as the game itself, it’s a tossup; SMU has the better offense, FAU has the better defense. Both are fairly balanced offensively, but SMU appears to be challenged with a passing game. That would indicate FAU’s Sophomore QB Chris Robison should have a good game. But will the Owls be up for this game? I’m gonna take SMU, but I’m not confident.
Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs Marshall, 1:30 pm December 23. Speaking of Expedition Unknown…just watched the episode about the search for the treasure of mythical pirate Jose Gaspar, who inspired the Gasparilla Pirate Festival that runs this bowl. And I’ll admit, if Scott Frost was still UCF’s coach, I’d have this in the next level of bowl games. But UCF seems to have an 83% chance of winning this game, according to ESPN. UCF wins.
Hawai’I Bowl: Hawai’I vs BYU, 7:00 pm December 24. At 1:00 pm local time, this game kicks off Christmas eve. But Hawai’I (Wait, when did an apostrophe appear in Hawai’i? Does that mean I have to pronounce it “Haw why ee ee” now?) gets to play in this bowl every year. As far as the game goes, it’s a tossup. Hawai’I has the slightly better offense, BYU has the slightly better defense. Hawai’I beat San Diego State; BYU lost to San Diego State. So Rainbow Warriors win, but I’m not confident at all.
Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs Miami, 3:00 pm December 26. Anyone else underwhelmed by Manny Diaz’ first season at Miami? A bowl is a bowl. The odds are giving Miami 6 points, but ESPN gives Miami a 72% chance of winning. Miami wins.
Military Bowl: North Carolina vs Temple, 11:00 am December 27. The Mack Brown revival tour continues against the Owls of Temple. I’d like Temple’s chances more, but in games against comparable talent, Temple lost (by two to Cincy, but UCF slaughtered them 63-21). ESPN gives North Carolina a 70% chance of winning. Tarheels win.
Redbox Bowl: California vs Illinois. 3:00 pm December 30. Cal averages 20 Points per game on offense. They got outscored on the season, giving up 22 points per game. Illinois was equally anemic on offense; they did average 7 more points per game, but only put up 319 yards per game. So while these are two power conference teams in a decent bowl game…don’t expect much offense. Cal is favored by 7, and has a 63% chance of winning. Illinois beat Michigan State and Wisconsin. So if you’re looking for an upset special, this might be it. Illinois wins.
Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs Georgia State. 3:30 pm December 31. Only ranked this high because I like Craig Bohl, coach at Wyoming. Otherwise, this bowl won’t have much drama. Wyoming has a 72% chance of winning according to ESPN. Wyoming it is.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs Nevada. 2:30 pm January 3. Frank Solich, last coach of the Nebraska Golden Era, has been the coach at Ohio for 15 years. That’s a long time, and the 76 year old coach is still going strong. But in regards to the game against the Wolfpack, I’ll watch if I’m doing nothing else. Since I’ll be working at 2:30 pm on January 3, I may have it streaming. Ohio wins.
Weirdly Compelling, but for no Real Discernible Reason Bowls: There aren’t many of these. And I’m not sure why they intrigue me. But they do.
Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs Louisville. 3:00 pm December 30. Scott Satterfield’s inaugural season at Louisville exceeded any possible expectations. Joe Moorehead’s second season in Starkville was far less than expectations. Two programs heading in opposite directions? Remains to be seen. But the game is going to be interesting. Louisville’s offense was better according to the stats, but that ended against “Good” defenses. Clemson? Lost 45-10. Notre Dame? Lost 35-17. Kentucky? The Wildcats blew them out 45-13. ESPN says the Bulldog’s have a 64.9% chance of winning. Mississippi State wins.
Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Kentucky. 11:00 am December 31. The teams feature the same type of play; run based offense, stifling defense. Virginia Tech, before the loss to Virginia to end the season, shut out Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh by a combined score 73-0. Kentucky only allows 321 yards and 18 points per game on the season, playing in the SEC. Kentucky won 7 games using an emergency QB; Lynn Bowden is the team leader in rushing, passing and receiving, literally defining the term “All Purpose.” This is the last game to see him play in college. Virginia Tech is favored by three, ESPN gives Kentucky a 58% chance of winning. I’m taking Kentucky.
Liberty Bowl: Navy vs Kansas State. 2:45 pm December 31. Navy averages 458 yards of offense a game; 363 of those on the ground. Every game. Kansas State is more balanced on offense, but is nowhere near as effective. If Navy gets the running game going, they can play keep-away from the Wildcats and shorten the game. I’d give Kansas State more of a chance, but Navy’s defense is not a liability this year, allowing 326 yards per game while facing Notre Dame, SMU, and Houston. Navy wins.
Hey, Lets Get Together at a Sports Bar to Watch This One Bowls: With three kids aged ten and under, and a wife with a busy schedule, I don’t get out much. If I’m going out to watch football, I want to make it count. These are all games that would seem to be worth making time to see.
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs Washington, 6:30 pm December 21. The farewell game for Washington coach Chris Petersen; against the team he made his name coaching. Boise State’s only loss was to BYU, but they haven’t beaten anyone; their win against Florida State to begin the season is far less impressive now. On paper, the Bronco’s offense and defense are better, but against sub-par competition that number is suspect. And if Washington can keep Washington State’s prolific offense out of the end zone, it can handle Boise State. Washington wins.
Pinstripe Bowl: Michigan State vs Wake Forest, 2:20 pm December 27. Michigan State’s offense is totally contingent on QB Brian Lewerke. If he’s on, the offense rocks. He hasn’t been on consistently since 2017. As such, the offense sputters…a lot. But the defense…the defense is holding opponents to 319 yards per game. So while Wake Forest’s offense is humming along at 473 yards a game, the team is only (only!) averaging 32 points per game, while the Deacon defense allows 409 yards and 29 points per game. Expect Michigan State to play old school Big Ten offense and grind out time of possession behind RB Elijah Collins, the freshman 217 pounder who has ground out 892 yards at 4.4 yards per carry on the season. Michigan State wins
Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M, 5:45 pm December 27. Whooo Hoo, Big 12 reunion night! Oklahoma State’s chances took a big uptick when RB Chuba Hubbard, he of the 1,936 rush yards and 21 TD’s, announced he’d be playing in the bowl game. With starting QB Spencer Sanders out for the season, having to break in a new starting RB (no RB other than Hubbard had more than 224 rush yards; the second leading rusher is Spencer Sanders) against the Aggies. Two seasons in on Jimbo Fisher’s time at Texas A&M, the 7-5 record this year would appear, on paper, to be a regression. Is it? Depends on what you look at, but the offensive skill position players are coming back next year. I’d like to take Oklahoma State, but until the Cowboys have a defense that can stop upper level offenses they won’t be easy picks. Texas A&M wins
Cheez-It Bowl. Air Force vs Washington State, 9:15 pm December 27. Oh, wow, this game looks fun. Triple option flexbone from Air Force versus Air Raid passing game with Washington State. I could see Air Force dominating this one; two or three long TD drives for Air Force will take up a bunch of clock time, and if Washington State sputters at all they’ll have trouble having enough time to catch up. Do I follow the money, which has Air Force favored by 3? Or the ESPN FPI, which has Washington State with a 54.3% chance of winning? Much as I like the Cougars, I’m taking Air Force to win.
Cotton Bowl: Memphis vs Penn State, 11:00 am December 28. If you’re going to go to a “consolation” game after missing out on the playoff, a game in AT&T stadium in Dallas is a nice alternate. Will either team be “up” for this, though? Memphis beat everyone except Temple, but Ole Miss wasn’t much of a win. Navy was, though, and they took down Cincinnati twice in two weeks. Penn State’s defense throttled Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State, but faltered against Minnesota, then lost contain against Ohio State. Penn State should win this game, but is the confidence there? Memphis will have the mojo in this one. Penn State wins, but doesn’t cover.
Camping World Bowl: Notre Dame vs Iowa State, 11:00 am December 28. Iowa State is far better than its record. Notre Dame, losing tight to Georgia and getting blown out by Michigan, quietly ended the season on a five game win streak. Ok, so their best win is either over Virginia or over Navy? So what…they won. Iowa State’s offense is better, and the defense is close enough to Notre Dame’s to make this game interesting. Notre Dame wins, but its closer than the 67.6% chance of winning that ESPN gives the Irish.
Orange Bowl: Florida vs Virginia. 7:00 pm December 30. How excited would Virginia be to have a ten win season? A win against the Gators would give us a chance to find out. Okay, its not likely; Florida is favored by 15 and ESPN gives them a 82.1% chance of winning. But Florida doesn’t have Bryce Perkins. Perkins threw for 3200 yards, with 18 TD’s, 11 INT’s, and rushed for 745 yards and 11 TD’s. If he can get going against the Florida defense, this game is a tossup, since Florida doesn’t really have an answer for him. That’s a longshot, but it would be awesome if it happens. Florida wins.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Florida State vs Arizona State. 1:00 pm December 31. Herm Edwards has turned out to be a decent hire for the Sun Devils. Florida State decided Willie Taggart wasn’t the answer, and interim coach Odell Haggins is prepping the team for the bowl game. Arizona State wins this one.
Alamo Bowl: Utah vs Texas. 6:30 pm December 31. Both teams have to be less than enthusiastic about this game. Utah was THIS CLOSE to making the playoff…and choked. Texas came nowhere near the expectations of the beginning of the season. In truth, getting to the Alamo was a win for Texas, because without the win over Texas Tech to end the season Texas was facing a much lower tier bowl. Anyway, while Utah is probably disappointed, the team is still better than Texas. The Utah defense should be able to stuff Texas, and Texas defense won’t have an answer for Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss. Utah Wins.
Birmingham Bowl: Boston College vs Cincinnati, 2:00 pm January 2. Boston College without Steve Addazio as coach will probably not be quite as focused as they should be. Cincinnati is going to be up for this game, after losing to Memphis twice to end the season. While the Cincy offense isn’t great, it is balanced. And Boston College’s defense is shoddy at best, surrendering 480 yards and 31 points per game. I’m taking Cincinnati, but not particularly confident in that pick.
Gator Bowl: Indiana vs Tennessee. 6:00 pm January 2. Talk about teams happy to be here! Indiana finished with 8 wins for the first time since 1993. Tennessee finished the season on a five game win streak to salvage what was a 2-5 start. I’d say Indiana would win in a walk, but Tennessee beat Kentucky and Missouri; both are decent if not good teams. Indiana needed OT to beat Purdue, and lost to Michigan and Penn State. Indiana hasn’t beaten anyone…literally, the best win was over Nebraska. I’m agreeing with ESPN; Tennessee wins.
Getcha Casual Cut Pants and Drinks, These Are Gonna Be Good Bowls: These are the games the WHOLE season has built up to. Watch and enjoy.
Holiday Bowl: USC vs Iowa, 7:00 pm December 27. The minimalist approach of 2019 Iowa versus the freshman wunderkind QB of USC. Iowa’s defense has held opponents to 13 points and 304 yards per game on the season, and has a win over Minnesota on the resume. While the Iowa offense isn’t scintillating, its efficient, whereas the USC defense is allowing more points and yards per game than Iowa normally averages. Iowa should win this, but they would do so by controlling the line of scrimmage and running the ball. Against everyone except Nebraska, that’s been a problem. If USC can get the offense going and get a lead, Iowa is most certainly not built to come from behind. USC’s handled Cal, but got thumped by Oregon. Oregon’s defense is arguably as good as Iowa’s, but Iowa doesn’t have the offense to put a ton of points up. The game is literally a toss up; ESPN doesn’t have a favorite. I’m taking USC, but don’t put a lot of money on it.
Peach Bowl: Oklahoma vs LSU, 3:00 pm December 28. Well, Jalen Hurts at least has experience playing LSU. This game is going to be interesting, because both teams feature strong offenses and developing defenses. Oklahoma has taken too many hits and had too many close calls, not even counting the loss to Kansas State. LSU has demolished everyone except Alabama, which was their closest game at a 5 point win. Needless to say, a close game at that level is pretty good. Oklahoma hasn’t had games against that caliber of opponent; even the wins against Baylor aren’t that level. LSU wins this one, getting to the Championship game.
Fiesta Bowl, Clemson vs Ohio State. 7:00 pm December 28. Whereas LSU/Oklahoma will be fun, but probably not that close, this game will be far more intriguing. These two teams are the epitome of “elite” for 2019. Ohio State has the far better resume; They beat Cincinnati, Michigan State, Wisconsin (Twice!) Penn State and Michigan. Clemson’s best win came against…Texas A&M? Not the Tigers fault that it’s a down period for the ACC, but when crushing Virginia in the ACC championship game is your signature win for the season, that’s a problem. The last team to punch Clemson in the mouth was North Carolina; North Carolina lost because they went for two to win. Considering how battle tested Ohio State is, despite the similarities in play I’m going to take the Buckeyes.
Outback Bowl: Minnesota vs Auburn. 12:00 pm January 1. Such a crushing end of the season for Minnesota. A week after a tenure defining win against #3 Penn State, Minnesota gagged against Iowa to drop out of the playoff race. Then, after beating Northwestern, Minnesota couldn’t handle the Wisconsin defense and lost 38-17 to get knocked out of the conference championship game. Auburn finished the season by beating Alabama. That’s it; that’s the highlight of the season, after losses to Florida, LSU and Georgia knocked them out of the playoff picture. This is a hard game to pick, because the teams are very similar and about the same caliber. Vegas is favoring Auburn by a touchdown. ESPN gives Auburn a 72% chance of winning. I think it will be close, and I wouldn’t be surprised by Minnesota winning, but I’m taking Auburn.
Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs Alabama. 12:00 pm January 1. Hahahahaha. I’m sorry, I’m thinking of the last time I saw Nick Saban, when he was literally having a tantrum on the sideline during the Auburn game, stamping his feet up and down and throwing his headset. And then, I’m struck by the part in Bad lip reading where Jim Harbaugh, when he was coaching the 49ers, was yelling on the sideline that he “wants pie now!!! I want it now!” Oh, you want me to interrupt my giggles to pick a winner? It’s Alabama; Michigan’s offense, while improved, won’t be effective enough against the Crimson Tide defense to offset the points Mac Jones and the Alabama offense are going to score.
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Wisconsin. 4:00 pm January 1. Similar caliber teams, with both fairly motivated to be in the game. Oregon, after the loss to Arizona State in November, couldn’t make the playoff, but proved its point by thumping Utah in the PAC 12 championship. Wisconsin showed better in the Big 10 Championship against Ohio State than they did during the regular season, but they allowed Ohio State to dominate the second half and score 27 unanswered points. That’s problematic. Neither team allows much in a rushing yardage, but both are looser against passing teams. Oregon is the better passing team. Oregon wins.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Baylor. 7:45 pm January 1. So if Baylor could have held on against Oklahoma in either of the two games they lost, this would be a different matchup. Baylor has the offense to hang with Georgia, but Georgia’s defense is next level competition compared to Oklahoma. Baylor’s got a shot, but I’m taking the Bulldogs.
I won’t pick the National Championship yet because…I don’t know who’s in it.
Watch for a post next week with the start of the fantasy season recap.