Fantasy Football Recap: WR’s/TE’s

Hello All!

As we close in on the new year, we look back on the year and wonder “Where did the time go?”

This year, the bowl games are screwy. I mean, why have so many and split them over four weeks if you’re really worried about the season “being too long” already? And even more…if the NCAA really wanted to satisfy the masses and expand the playoff AND keep the bowl games happy…they could do both. They won’t, but they could.

Seriously…a 32 team playoff, starting the week after Conference championships. 5 weekends. There would be 31 total games; yes, 9 bowl games would be eliminated, but that would keep the majority happy. The season would be no longer than it is now. And it would be fair.

But I digress.

Today, we are recapping the Fantasy football final rankings for Wide Receivers and Tight Ends. Let’s get started.

Wide Receivers: There was one Elite WR this year (that’s not always the case, there are many years without a WR that stands out head and shoulders above the rest.) There was one Tier One Elite WR. There were 13 total WR’s that stood out, and then a bunch of mediocrity.

Elite:

1. JaMarr Chase, LSU. AP Rank: 9. Preseason Rank: MattC: Unranked. Fantrax: 118^th. TFP: 312. PPG: 28.36. Chase started slowly, picking up 27 points in the first three games and not playing against Northwestern State. Then came the 229 yards and four TD’s against Vanderbilt, and the season was on. Starting against Alabama, Chase picked up 157 fantasy points over the final four games; anytime a WR averages close to 40 PPG that’s something.

Tier One Elite: (Again, give me a better name. Please.)

2. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma. AP Rank: 25. Preseason Rank: MattC: 4, Fantrax: 6^th. TFP: 245. PPG: 22.27. Lamb was hurt to end the year, missing the first Baylor game and recording 12 total points against TCU and Oklahoma State. Full strength in those games and he would probably equal Chase.

Tier One: Starting WR’s one and all, but just not quite the caliber of Lamb and markedly less than Chase.  (btw…my fantasy teams had three of these WR’s. Just saying.)

3. Devin Duvernay, Texas. AP Rank: 26. Preseason Rank: MattC: 62, Fantrax: 120^th. TFP: 245, PPG: 20.42. Obviously, a HUGE miss on all the preseason predictions. Duvernay only recorded 8 TD’s; that was a LOT of points based on mostly yardage.
4. Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon State. AP Rank: 28. Preseason Rank: MattC 21, Fantrax: 12. TFP: 241, PPG: 20.08. Hodgins made his mark over the first five games of the season, picking up 151 points during that period. He had one big game on November 2 against Arizona, picking up 42 points, but over the other six games to end the season he averaged 8 points per game.
5. Michael Pittman Jr, USC. AP Rank: 31. Preseason Rank: MattC 46, Fantrax 48. TFP: 237, PPG: 19.75. Fantrax and I were remarkably similar in our predictions. However, that did not reflect reality. Pittman had two sub ten point games, and five games with more than 20 points.
6. Devonta Smith, Alabama. AP Rank: 34. Preseason Rank: MattC: 121, Fantrax: 109. TFP: 227, PPG 18.92. Smith wasn’t bad, but 72 points came from one game. Over the other 11, he averaged 14.09 PPG. So his numbers are a little skewed.
7. Sage Surrat, Wake Forest. AP Rank: 35. Preseason Rank: MattC: Unranked, Fantrax 28. TFP: 227. PPG 25.22. I know what you’re thinking: Wait, he averaged 25 PPG? How is he only ranked 7^th? He was injured November 9^th and missed the final three games of the regular season. If he hadn’t been injured, he would have been ranked Elite. And yes, I didn’t have any idea how he’d do this year because I couldn’t find info about Wake Forest before the season. Whoops.
8. Justin Jefferson, LSU. AP Rank 36. Preseason Rank: MattC: 17, Fantrax: 30. TFP: 226, PPG 18.83. I at least had Jefferson close, if not Chase. But LSU has NEVER had an offense like this.
9. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota. AP Rank: 38. Preseason Rank: MattC 23, Fantrax 15. TFP: 223, PPG: 18.58. Okay, I knew he’d be good, but not quite this good. To echo the LSU comment, Minnesota has NEVER had an offense like this.
10. Chatarius Atwell, Louisville. AP Rank 39. Preseason Rank: MattC 148, Fantrax 113^. TFP: 222, PPG 18.5. Who? I’ll be honest, I had no idea that Louisville had a 1,000 yard receiver until I started this recap. Part of the problem was that Atwell was laboring for the worst team in the league; needless to say I didn’t keep up with his exploits.
11. Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State. Preseason Rank: MattC: 149, Fantrax 88^th. TFP: 218, PPG: 18.17. The Sun Devil resurrection continues under Herm Edwards. Aiyuk was decent most of the year.
12. Tyler Johnson, Minnesota. Preseason Rank: MattC: 10, Fantrax: 8. TFP: 212, PPG 17.67. Okay, so to recap: Number of Ohio State WR’s in the top 12? 0. One Alabama WR in the top 12. No Clemson WR’s in the top ten. Only two teams had more than one WR in the Top 12. LSU and…Minnesota? As in Minneapolis? Home of cold and snow from November on? TWO 1,000 yard WR’s for the Gophers? What is the world coming to? At least I predicted Johnson fairly well.

WR2: Hey, you need three WR’s every game. These guys fit the bill.

13. Trishton Jackson, Syracuse. AP Rank: 54. TFP: 197, PPG: 16.42
14. Dyami Brown, North Carolina. AP Rank: 63, TFP: 187, PPG 17.
15. David Bell, Purdue. AP Rank: 64. TFP: 185, PPG 15.42
16. Easop Winston Jr, Washington State. AP Rank: 67. TFP: 181, PPG: 15.08
17. Denzel Mims, Baylor. AP Rank: 72. TFP: 175, PPG 14.58
18. Jauan Jennings, Tennessee. AP Rank 74. TFP: 175, PPG 14.58
19. Tee Higgins, Clemson. AP Rank: 79. TFP: 170, PPG 14.17
20. Whop Philyor, Indiana. AP Rank: 80. TFP: 169, PPG 15.36
21. Dazz Newsome, North Carolina. AP Rank: 81. TFP: 169, PPG: 15.36
22. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama. AP Rank: 85. TFP: 165, PPG: 13.75
23. Tamorrion Terry, Florida State. AP Rank: 86. TFP: 165, PPG 13.75
24. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State. AP Rank: 87. TFP: 165, PPG 18.33
25. Amon-Ra St Brown, USC. AP Rank: 87. TFP: 154. PPG: 12.83
26. Brandon Arconado, Washington State. AP Rank: 94. TFP: 154, PPG 15.4
27. KJ Hamler, Penn State. AP Rank: 99. TFP: 149, PPG 12.42
28. JD Spielman, Nebraska. AP Rank: 105. TFP 146, PPG 12.17
29. Tyler Vaughns, USC. AP Rank: 107. TFP: 146, PPG 13.27
30. Laviska Shenault, Colorado. AP Rank: 111. TFP: 146, PPG 13.18

Notable Misses on the year: Some have already been discussed; I’ll admit that JaMarr Chase was a miss, along with Devin Duvernay, Michael Pittman Jr, Devonta Smith, et al. Some others you may have noticed in the WR2 list. Here are the ones that aren’t listed yet.

1. Laviska Shennault Jr, Colorado. Preseason Rank: MattC 1, Fantrax 3. Final Position Rank (FPR): 30. TFP: 145, PPG 13.18. He played hurt most of the year, and just was not as explosive this year as last year.
2. Rondale Moore, Purdue. Preseason rank: MattC2, Fantrax 1. FPR: 104. TFP: 69. PPG: 17.25. Moore only played in four games on the season. He was effective in those games, per his PPG average, but he was injured September 28^th and was shut down. Since he only played four games, he may have gotten a redshirt.
3. Bryan Edwards, South Carolina. Preseason Rank: MattC 7, Fantrax 7. FPR: 40. TFP: 128, PPG 12.8. He still had 816 yards and six TD’s, but wasn’t the fantasy powerhouse we expected him to be.
4. Kalija Lipscomb, Vanderbilt. Preseason Rank: Matt C 8, Fantrax 10. FPR: Unranked. (Okay, he’s on the list, but he’s outside the 300 names I pulled from the site. So for all intents and purposes he’s unranked.) TFP: 67, PPG 6.7. The Vanderbilt offense cratered this season, and that affected the sill positions.
5. TJ Vasher, Texas Tech. Preseason Rank: MattC 9, Fantrax Unranked. FPR: 79. TFP: 89. PPG 8.9. Texas Tech’s offense was less effective this year than in prior years under Kliff Kingsbury. Vasher was the biggest hit of that effect.
6. Justyn Ross, Clemson. Preseason Rank: MattC 13, Fantrax 11. FPR: 58. TFP: 108, PPG 9.82. We in Fantasy football have to keep in mind that just because a player is less relevant from a fantasy perspective than we expected, doesn’t mean they were a failure. Ross had 648 yards and 7 TD’s; that’s a decent college year. But with Trevor Lawrence not quite as explosive as last year and with the full emergence of Tee Higgins, Ross wasn’t needed as much.

Final Stats:

Total WR’s to make the list: 117

Average Points Per Game: 11.19.

Number of players “Above Average”: 40; 34.18%

Takeaways:

1. As always, WR was completely hit and miss. Essentially, if the player didn’t get double digit TD’s on the season, they were rated as mediocre.
2. Compare the RB average to the WR average to the QB average. Which one is most important? Before you answer…keep in mind you play TWO RB’s a week and Three WR’s a week. Does that change your answer? If you’re lucky enough to have two Tier One QB’s, you probably used draft capital to get them that kept you from a top RB or WR. I had five WR’s on Tres Chico’s at the end of the season, all beat the average. Four WR’s on Perry, and three beat the average.

Tight Ends: So, you have to have a TE. You have to play one every week, especially if you’re in a league that doesn’t allow “illegal” schedules (in other words, if you don’t play one, you get credit for NONE of your players.). And very rarely is it even important. But…I won the league this year by ONE point. So even if a TE isn’t much, that little extra production is worth having. This year, there is one Tier One Elite TE, then 9 who produced enough fantasy points to be in the top 300.

Tier One Elite (And yes, this is done with a slight tongue in cheek. I mean, he’s not really elite…but compared to the pack, he certainly was.)

1. Brycen Hopkins, Purdue. AP Rank: 125. TFP: 136. PPG 12.36. One TE averaged more than 10 points per game. If you’re a TE averaging double digit points, that makes you Elite.

TE1: Note: I’m not showing the Preseason ranks, because there isn’t much. I pick TE’s second to last in the draft; unless its someone next generation talented like Noah Fant two years ago, I’m not moving from that spot. So I don’t do much preseason ranking.

2. Brant Kuithe, Utah. TFP: 115. PPG: 9.58
3. Charlie Kolar, Iowa State. TFP: 108, PPG: 9.
4. Hunter Bryant, Washington. TFP: 105, PPG: 8.75
5. Devin Asiasi, UCLA. TFP: 90, PPG 7.5
6. Pat Freimuth, Penn State. TFP: 89, PPG 7.42
7. Kyle Pitts, Florida. TFP: 89, PPG 7.42.
8. Jacob Breeland, Oregon. TFP 78, PPG 13. Breeland only played in 6 games and scored this high; he gets special acknowledgement.
9. Peyton Hendeershot, Indiana. TFP 75, PPG 6.25
10. Jalen Wydermyer, Texas A&M. TFP 73, PPG 6.64.

That’s it for now. We’ll see if I do my season recap; will have to see if anyone actively reads these posts. Happy New Year all!

Fantasy Football Recap: RB’s.

Hello All!

Well, its official. I have broken the barrier and have started posting again. Hope you enjoy!

Today, we are discussing Running Backs. Follow along, if you dare!

Running Backs: Well, the Running backs had two Elite performers and one Tier One Elite as well…a weird coincidence? There were not as many Tier One backs, with eight this year. After that, there were only 13 RB’s worth a RB2 choice. To recap: 11 RB1 backs (which, for those unused to the lexicon, means you take those backs and start them every week) and 13 RB2 backs (this means you start two RB’s every week, and these are the ones you want to have to backstop the top backs.) That’s ugly. I mean, in college fantasy football, the advantage is that normally, there are potentially 40 or so starters that are worth taking at a given time. At least in the power five conferences, this season was a bust.

Elite RB:

1. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State. AP Rank: 3. Preseason Rank: MattC: 9, Fantrax: 14. Total Fantasy Points (TFP): 425. Points per Game (PPG): 35.42. Hubbard was deceptively good last year, as part of a rotation. This year, the Oklahoma State bell cow had four games with more than 49 fantasy points scored.
2. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin. AP Rank: 4. Preseason Rank: MattC: 1, Fantrax: 1. TFP: 421, PPG: 35.08. Taylor hit the expectations we thought he would. His biggest problem was the 52 yards he was held to against Ohio State in round one; that 5 point day kept him from being the #1 Fantasy prospect in the nation.

Tier One Elite:

3. K. Dobbins, Ohio State. AP Rank: 5. Preseason Rank: MattC: 8, Fantrax: 21. TFP: 353, PPG: 29.42. Dobbins suffered in some preseason rankings because he hadn’t been the lead back in prior seasons; he always had Mike Weber to share carries. This year, he exploded without having to look over his shoulder. The last three games of the regular season made his fantasy season; he scored 125 of his fantasy points in that period, averaging 41.67 points per game. Without those games, he’s good, but not great.

Tier One: RB1

4. AJ Dillon, Boston College. AP Rank: 7. Preseason Rank: MattC 15, Fantrax 11. TFP: 328. PPG: 27.33. Dillon was steady, but didn’t have the standout moments that the first three had. Then again, I had him ranked as a low Tier one prospect, not a one step below Elite fantasy option. So what do I know?
5. Travis Etienne, Clemson. AP Rank: 8. Preseason Rank: MattC 3, Fantrax 2. TFP: 322, PPG 26.83. Etienne was a good pickup, and produced very well…just not up to our preseason ranks. He did suffer a little by lack of competition; he didn’t need to stay in entire games.
6. Zack Moss, Utah. AP Rank: 13. Preseason rank: MattC 18, Fantrax 12. TFP: 290. PPG: 26.36. Considering I thought Moss had graduated and wasn’t going to play this year up to the week before the draft, I had him rated ok. I downgraded him due to injuries last year; obviously he didn’t have any such problem this year. (Side note: You could make an argument that Moss is the place to cut between Tier One Elite and Tier one. Even though Moss missed a game, if you added in his average score he still wouldn’t be equal to Etienne. That’s a big gap. Course, same game exists between Etienne/Dillon and Dobbins. So I don’t have a great answer.)
7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU. AP Rank: 16. Preseason Rank: Matt C: 49, Fantrax 73. TFP: 280. PPG 23.33. Well. I stand corrected. Fantrax thought some dude name John Emery Jr. would be the starting LSU RB; I thought Emery would steal carries from Edwards-Helaire and reduce his value. For the season, Emery has 182 yards and three TD’s. Edwards-Helaire took full advantage of his opportunity, and exceeded our fantasy expectations.
8. Cam Akers, Florida State. AP Rank: 17. Preseason Rank: MattC 23, Fantrax: 24. TFP: 267. PPG: 24.27. Another miss. Akers had never operated as the undisputed lead back before; he missed a game during the season, but that was it. With 24 more points, he’s ahead of Zack Moss. Definitely a miss on my part.
9. Kylin Hill, Mississippi State. AP Rank: 18. Preseason Rank: MattC 33, Fantrax 8. TFP: 263. PPG: 21.92. I didn’t rank him high enough, obviously. Wish I knew what Fantrax saw. In a lost season for Mississippi State (yeah, they bowled, but 6-6 is not what they are paying Joe Moorehead for) Hill’s production drove the offense.
10. Najee Harris, Alabama. AP Rank: 19. Preseason Rank: MattC 28, Fantrax 13. TFP: 262. PPG: 21.83. Hmmmm….maybe I should start following Fantrax predictions a tad more? To be fair, 90% of Alabama seasons involve a committee of RB’s which dilutes production. This season, Harris was so superior that he didn’t come off the field; he had 304 receiving yards to go with 7 receiving TD’s, which drove his totals up.

Top Consolation Prize:

11. Max Borgi, Washington State. AP Rank: 30. Preseason Rank: MattC 16, Fantrax TFP 238, PPG: 19.83. Why does Borgi get listed special, despite being outside the top ten? Because he only had 790 rush yards. That’s right, he didn’t break 1,000…rush yards. He did have 11 TD’s, and that’s a big amount, but he also brought in 566 receiving yards and 4 TD’s playing in the Air Raid offense at Washington State. Thus, he gets special consideration.

Notable Misses on the year: Yes, I’m ignoring Edwards-Helaire, Hill, or anyone else above that we’ve already discussed. Moving on:

1. Eno Benjamin, Arizona State Rank: 13. Preseason Rank: MattC 2, Fantrax 4. TFP: 235. PPG: 19.58. Only listed here because he was a top 5 projection. He was still decent, but anyone who took him early was disappointed.
2. D’Andre Swift, Georgia. Rank: 14. Preseason Rank: MattC 4, Fantrax 3. TFP: 204, PPG: 17. See Benjamin above, but worse per game.
3. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State. Rank: 34: Preseason Rank: MattC 6, Fantrax 9. TFP: 146, PPG 16.22. His Points per game are higher than his overall rank; he missed 3 games due to injury. But if you listened to me and picked him in the top ten, you weren’t happy with me.
4. JJ Taylor, Arizona. Rank: 46. Preseason Rank: MattC 7, Fantrax 10. TFP131, PPG 11.91. Anyone else seeing a trend with Arizona skill position players under Kevin Sumlin? He was only this high because he had 289 receiving yards.
5. Asim Rose, Kentucky. Rank: 52. Preseason Rank: MattC 12, Fantrax 18. TFP: 122, PPG 10.17. Rose never took over as the full time starter, and then Lynn Bowden ascended. Yikes.
6. Isaiah Bowser, Northwestern. Unranked. Preseason Rank: MattC 13, Fantrax 30. Bowser got hurt early in the season, and never made it back to health. If you listened to me and took him as a RB2, you have my apologies.
7. Scottie Phillips, Mississippi. Rank: 65. Preseason Rank: MattC 14, Fantrax 34. TFP: 103, PPG 11.44. Phillips got hurt and missed three games. Even so, the RichRod offense never really got going on the season.
8. Larry Rountree III. Rank 31. Preseason Rank: MattC 21, Fantrax 6. TFP: 149, PPG 12.42. Okay, so if you listened to me, you weren’t TOOO upset by this rank. But if you listened to Fantrax, you were all sorts of mad. Guess I can’t listen to Fantrax about everything.
9. Javian Hawkins, Louisville. Rank: 12. Preseason Rank: Unranked. TFP: 236, PPG 19.67. Hawkins took over the starting job in game two and never let it go. Anyone have Hawkins picking up 1,420 yards at the beginning of the year?

Final Stats:

RB’s making the list: 101

Average Points per Game: 12.61.

Players “Above Average”: 36; 35.64% of total.

Takeaways:

1. Okay, I knew there weren’t that many top RB prospects, but this deeper statistical dive is problematic. I mean, I usually have four RB’s on my roster at any given time. These stats indicate that, more than likely, one of my RB’s would be a place filler at best.
2. 19 RB’s had more than 1,000 rushing yards. That’s not great either.
3. Overall, if you managed to get three of the above average players, you probably ended up winning your league. Tres Chico’s Bandito’s had three in the top 36, but they were 2, 12, and 22. Perry had only two…and won the league. So what do I know?

That’s it for now. I know, its short, but this way I can post more. Watch for the WR/TE post. And just maybe…my fantasy football season postscript. Stay tuned

Season Fantasy football position recap: DST’s and QB’s

Hello Everyone!

Hope this whets your appetite for fantasy football, considering that bowl season is ongoing and the most “fantasy” football that you’re getting, college related, is the ESPN College Bowl Mania (Currently ranked 1,731st!)

Today, we’ll discuss Defense/Special Teams. On subsequent posts, we’ll discuss the other positions. Enjoy!

Defense/Special teams

1. Ohio State.
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 11; Fantrax: 10
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 621. Points per Game: 51.75
   3. Why? Well, obviously, I overlooked the fact that Ohio States Defensive talent was light years beyond any other teams. I also overlooked Chase Young, who sparked the team to pick up 48 sacks on the year. Note: When your leagues scoring has sacks equaling a Field goal, like mine does, then you take the team with a next level sack generator.
2. Wisconsin
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 30^th; Fantrax 31^st
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 618. Points per Game: 51.5
   3. Why? Four shutouts. Four games that scored 50 fantasy points JUST FOR PLAYING. Not including any other points. Add in 44 sacks and it was a dominant fantasy season. And…ouch. I mean, this was a major miss.
3. Utah
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 20, Fantrax 11
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 606. Points per Game: 50.5
   3. Why? Utah has allowed 135 points this season. Total. And that includes playing Oregon State and Washington State. So despite mediocre sack totals, no safeties, and average Fumble Recoveries and Interceptions, they averaged a lot of points per game. Also, the six defensive/special team TD’s helped.
4. Clemson
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 2, Fantrax: 1
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 591. Points per Game: 49.25
   3. Why? 36 sacks and 25 turnovers. It hurt that there wasn’t a truly dominant game, though, so while still good, not quite the fantasy monster Ohio State was. And yes, I took Clemson with my number one pick.
5. Florida
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 15; Fantrax: 16
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 590. Points per Game: 49.17
   3. Why? 46 sacks. The defense failed a couple times in big games, but they got pressure consistently through the season. I missed on this pick as well.

And…that’s the end of the “Elite” defenses. For those of you who follow me and know how I rank teams, the “Elite” status is the top of the charts, worth more than anything else. The dropoff in class/score/point potential after these five teams is pretty dramatic. So is my commentary.

6. Oregon
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 34, Fantrax: 20
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 568. Points per Game: 47.33
   3. Why? Um, well, its Oregon. Oregon hasn’t had a top ten Fantasy DST in, well, forever. Total surprise. Also makes the PAC 12 championship interesting, as everyone is gushing about Utah’s defense and not really mentioning that Oregon’s defense is pretty good too.
7. Penn State
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 17, Fantrax: 9
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 563. Points per Game: 46.92
   3. Why? Fantrax was much closer than I was. I think it’s a combo of not liking Penn State under James Franklin (I don’t know, the guy bugs me a little for no real reason) and that Penn State is in the Big 10 division with Ohio State and Michigan. I mean, facing both those teams is going to cause some points to be scored.
8. Georgia
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 6, Fantrax: 5
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 562. Points per Game: 46.83
   3. Why? Hey, this is close enough for me to count it as good. So there.
9. Alabama:
   1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 1, Fantrax: 2
   2. Total Fantasy Points: 547. Points per Game: 45.58
   3. Why? Why is right…I took Alabama as Tres Chico’s #1 pick. And I dropped them for…Missouri. And Michigan. And finally Pittsburgh. I should have kept the Tide, but I fell victim to “you only need one DST at a time” and dropped Alabama during a bye week, and was unable to get them back as another team grabbed them and kept them.
10. Baylor
    1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 58, Fantrax: Who Cares?
    2. Total Fantasy Points: 536. Points per Game: 44.67
    3. Why? How the hell should I know? Well, 40 sacks and 28 takeaways helped. Anyone else now regarding the Big 12 Championship slightly differently, knowing the Baylor DST is ranked 34 spots higher than Oklahoma?
11. Iowa
    1. Preseason Rank: MattC: 3, Fantrax: 13
    2. Total Fantasy Points: 524. Points per Game: 43.67.
    3. Why? Well, I thought Iowa would be better than this. Fantrax was close, anyway. Iowa didn’t get enough sacks to be a top fantasy option, but they were good.
12. Michigan State
    7. Preseason Rank: MattC 12, Fantrax: 7.
    8. Total Fantasy Points: 509. Points per Game: 42.42
    9. Why? Considering Michigan State finished 6 – 6 on the season, this is MUCH higher than it should have been. But I got 100% in my preview.
13. Virginia
    1. Preseason Rank: MattC 31, Fantrax: 31
    2. Total Fantasy Points: 500. Points per Game: 41.67
    3. Why? Bronco Mendenhall is a good coach, and Virginia has a much improved defense. I didn’t figure it would be good enough to be worth an early pick, though.
14. Virginia Tech
    1. Preseason rank: MattC 25, Fantrax 32
    2. Total Fantasy Points: 500. Points per game: 41.67
    3. Why? I know, they have the same points as Virginia…Tie-Breaker is that the Hokies gave up 2 more points this year than the Cavaliers. Virginia Tech spent most of the season far lower, but in Bud Fosters swan song the Hokies picked up the pace end of the season and climbed back into Fantasy Football respectability.

Notable Remaining misses:

MattC List:

1. Auburn:4^th preseason, 22^nd final. So much for the Kevin Steele Defense. Then again, Fantasy production doesn’t always equal actual game product
2. Mississippi State: 5^th Preseason, 37th Final. This was ugly.
3. Washington: 9^th Preseason, 21^st This probably would have been better if the offense was better.
4. Nebraska: 13^th Preseason, Who the heck cares final? (it was 28^th) So much for “improvement” in year two…
5. Boston College: MattC Preseason: 24, Fantrax 15. Final: 59th. No one saw this coming. BC hired Steve Addazio to make sure this type of situation didn’t happen…well, at least that the defense was always good. This year was a disaster.

Final Stats:

Average Points per Game (64 teams): 36.69.

Number of teams “Above Average”: 29.

Takeaways:

1. DST’s affected the season more than normal, because parity struck the Fantasy DST world. If you missed out on one of the top DST’s, there were 6 DST’s that averaged between 42 and 40 PPG. There were 11 teams between 43 and 39 PPG. Since you only need one DST a week, that’s a lot of teams available to provide coverage. So while some players in my league stockpiled DST’s (One kept four at one point, trying to accumulate trade bait) it didn’t matter. There were too many other DST’s to make a trade worthwhile.
2. Alabama. We are used to the Alabama Defense (and the DST) being almost otherworldly, and this year, Alabama was just…good. And yes, I drafted Alabama #1. And that hurt, because I literally had to trade them out because there were other DST’s with better scores available that I needed.
3. Rise of the Big 10. Five of the top 12 DST’s are from the Big 10. That’s not boding well for the rest of the Big 10, at least in terms of defensive acumen. Also…I wish I had taken Wisconsin, riding the string of shutouts at the beginning of the season. That would have been awesome.
4. Futility. Rutgers was the bottom of the DST rankings, averaging 23.67 PPG. Kansas was next, then, Arizona. Arizona was a surprise, considering that Arizona finished with four wins. rounding out the bottom five were Georgia Tech and Arkansas.

Tired yet? Well, this post wasn’t quite long enough. So, on with the QB’s!

Quarterbacks:

Overall comments: It was the best of times, it was the most average of times. There were TWO Elite QB’s this year. There was one Tier One Elite QB. What does that mean? It means there was one QB who was head and shoulders above the rest of the QB bunch, but not quite in the stratosphere with the two at the top of the list. Then…a whole bunch of Meh. This season wasn’t a great one for top notch QB production. There were a fair amount of Decent, but only 12 players (at least ones who played a full season) who averaged more than 20 points per game. This was not pretty.

ELITE:

1. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma. All Purpose (AP) rank: 1. Preseason Rank: Both 1. Total Fantasy Points (TFP): 476 Points per Game (PPG): 39.67. Well, that was easy. He was the preseason #1 QB and hit that mark. He was the preseason #2 AP, and beat that number.
2. Anthony Gordon, Washington State. AP Rank: 2. Preseason Rank: Funny Story; the pundits insisted that FCS transfer Gabe Gubrud was going to be the starter, despite notes coming out of Washington State indicating Gordon was the leader. So while I had Gordon ranked, I drafted Gubrud…which lasted one day, as the day after the draft Washington State named Gordon the starter. I digress. TFP: 445. PPG: 37.08. Gordon was awesome for most of the year, but as with other Washington State QB’s, he broke down in big games. Gordon scored single digits against Utah and against Washington in the Apple Cup.

Tier One Elite (I’m torn, I realize this is a dumb title, but seriously, I’m stuck. If you have a better name tell me.)

3. Joe Burrow, LSU. AP Rank: 6. Preseason Rank: MattC: 5, Fantrax: 22. TFP: 350. PPG: 29.17. I knew Burrow would be good, but not quite THIS good. Then again, if you went by his total stats last year, you would have ranked him like Fantrax did.

Tier One: Hey, its boring. But these guys were the top fantasy players at the position.

4. Justin Fields, Ohio State. AP Rank: 10. Preseason Rank: MattC: 12, Fantrax 2. TFP: 311. PPG: 25.92. Fields was great for the season, although he needed more passing yards. Again, while he had 37 frickin TD’s, QB’s don’t get 6 points per passing TD in my league…just 3. And while he was decent on the ground, he only 470 rush yards didn’t move the needle enough.
5. Sam Ehlinger, Texas. AP Rank: 11. Preseason Rank: MattC: 2, Fantrax: 7. TFP: 304. PPG: 25.33. Whlinger wasn’t the rushing TD machine he was last year. 590 yards and 6 TD’s is decent for a QB, but last year he had 11. That same amount would have moved him into Tier One Elite Status.
6. Brock Purdy, Iowa State. AP rank: 12.Preseaon Rank: MattC: 15, Fantrax: 13. TFP: 297. PPG: 24.75. I’ll admit it; I didn’t think Purdy would get enough yards to get quite this high. 3700 passing yards later and here we go.
7. Lynn Bowden Jr, Kentucky AP Rank: 14. Preseason Rank: Unranked. TFP: 290. PPG: 24.17. Bowden started the season as a WR. He moved over to QB when all the other QB’s went down, and running a exclusive zone read piled up 1,235 rush yards and 11 TD’s. Don’t expect this again next year; he’s not a QB, and won’t play QB next year. Hopefully.
8. Bryce Perkins, Virginia: AP Rank: 15. Preseason Rank: MattC: 4, Fantrax: 3. TFP 290, PPG 24.17. Yes, I see that technical Bowden and Perkins are tied. Bowden, in addition to passing and rushing yards, had 348 receiving yards. So he wins the tiebreaker. Anyway, Perkins spent much of the year lower than this, but perked up over the last four games of the season. He score 154 fantasy points in that period (38.5 PPG).
9. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. AP Rank: 20. Preseason Rank: MattC: 10, Fantrax: 11. TFP: 260. PPG: 21.67. Is he one of the top QB prospects in football right now? Of course. Is he a top Fantasy player? No, but if you wanted a QB who stayed right around 21 PPG every game, he was perfect.
10. Charlie Brewer, Baylor. AP Rank: 21. Preseason Rank: MattC: 25, Fantrax: 16. TFP: 253. PPG: 21.08. This was a miss. Plain and simple, I didn’t give Brewer and/or Matt Rhule enough offensive credit.
11. Jamie Newman, Wake Forest. AP Rank: 22. Preseason Rank: MattC: Unranked, Fantrax: Unranked. TFP: 252. PPG: 22.91. Newman took the job from Sam Hartman at the beginning of the season and didn’t let it go. Complete surprise. He missed a game, two, otherwise he probably breaks the top ten.
12. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama. AP Rank: 23. Preseason rank: MattC: 9, Fantrax: 9. TFP: 248. PPG: 27.56. Tagovailoa missed a quarter of the season and still ranked 12^th. Lets see if he comes back next year; he was this good without ANY semblance of a rushing option.
13. Kedon Slovis, USC. AP Rank: 24. Preseason Rank: Unranked. TFP: 248. PPG: 22.55. Slovis started the season #3 on the depth chart, but when he got his shot he shined. 3,242 pass yards and 28 TD’s with only 9 INT’s is a good true freshman season.
14. John Rhys Plumlee, Mississippi. AP Rank: 27. Preseason Rank: Unranked. TFP: 242 PPG: 26.89. Plumlee participated in nine games, and was a starter in around 8. He wasn’t expected to pass much, but he took off for 1,023 rushing yards and 12 TD’s. Whether he’s a factor next year will depend on who the head coach is.

Notable Misses on the year:

1. Adrian Martinez, Nebraska. Preseason Rank: MattC: 3, Fantrax: 4. Position Rank: 28. AP Rank: 60. TFP: 189. PPG 18.90. Ok, not all his fault, missing 2 full games and parts of two others. But definitely a sophomore slump for the Nebraska signal caller.
2. Keytaon Thompson, Mississippi State. Preseason Rank: MattC: 6, Fantrax: Unranked. Position Rank: Unranked. So, I was wrong. Tommy Stevens came in at Mississippi State and took the starting job. Then when he went down, True Freshman Garrett Shrader took over and finished the year. Thank goodness, I didn’t take him in the draft.
3. Ryan Willis, Virginia Tech Preseason Rank: MattC 11, Fantrax: 18. Position Rank: 75. TFP: 60. PPG: 12 . Willis lost his job to Herndon Hooker mid-season and never regained it. What we should have considered was that Willis, a pocket passer, was never a natural fit for Justin Fuente’s offense
4. Khalil Tate, Arizona. Preseason Rank: MattC: 14, Fantrax, 10. Position Rank: 34 TFP: 179, PPG: 16.27. Potential was wasted here. Kevin Sumlin uses a mobile QB in his offensive schemes; why wouldn’t Tate flourish in this system? Maybe Rich Rodriguez was a better offensive guy than we thought?
5. Spencer Sanders. Preseason Rank: MattC 17, Fantrax: 5. Position Rank: 33. TFP: 183, PPG: 18.3. Sanders wasn’t bad for most of the year, but plainly wasn’t worthy of a top 5 rank on Fantrax. Course, with two additional games at his average, he’d have 219 points…putting him at 18^th. So I would have been right at that point.

Final Stats:

Average PPG (56 QB’s included) 18.28.

Number of Players “Above Average”: 20.

Takeaways:

1. 20 QB’s above average? That’s ridiculous. That means QB play on the fantasy level was terrible, on the average.
2. Seriously, 20 QB’s averaged between 15 and 19.99 points per game. That’s a whole lot of mediocrity. And yes, I used 10 of them during the season to try and stay ahead of the rest of the league. I don’t recommend this method, but if you can do it, it does work.
3. Top Returning QB would seem to be Justin Fields. Sam Ehlinger will probably go pro, Then its Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence. Next year will be interesting.

That’s it for now. After this, some shorter posts discussing RB’s and WR/TE’s. Stay tuned!

Bowl Picks

For those who are still with me, my apologies for the lack of posts this year. I know, you were waiting with baited breath for my weekly pickems and updates about the football season.

I took the year off.

Sorry about that.

Seriously, I simply didn’t have the time to devote over 5 hours of my week keeping up with posting about my picks on games every week. Plus, I found that…I didn’t really care. Oddly enough, even though I checked with the other pickers to make sure they were willing to play again…no one contacted me to find out why I hadn’t reached out for their picks. Kinda odd, but again, I wasn’t up in arms about it either.

Again, if you were heartsick and lost without me, I apologize. Again. Sincerely.

So, I have picks for the bowl games. Its just me; I’m not competing against anyone else, although you can watch me on ESPN as “matters3173”. Sorry this is coming out the day the bowl games start; again, took some time to get back into the groove.

I’ve rated these games by watchability. Read on!

I’d rather watch “Rise of Skywalker” Bowls: Okay, granted, I’m all in on watching Rise of Skywalker. I’m a Star Wars guy. But these bowl games just aren’t that interesting or even pivotal to anyone other than their fans.

Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Charlotte. 1:00 pm December 20. Buffalo has never won a bowl game. Charlotte is in its 1^ST bowl game. And it’s the first game of the season. ***SNORE***. Buffalo wins.

Frisco Bowl: Utah State vs Kent State, 6:30 pm December 20. Well, Utah State has a good team, and Kent State is a feel good story. Otherwise, I got nothing. Utah State wins.

New Mexico Bowl: Central Michigan vs San Diego State, 1:00 pm December 21 The “directional” Michigan teams all did pretty well this year. But San Diego State only allows 12.8 points and 329 yards per game. That will not be pretty. San Diego State wins.

Cure Bowl: Liberty vs Georgia Southern, 1:30 pm December 21. If you like option football, Georgia Southern is where its at. Liberty allows 192 yards per game on the ground; Georgia Southern rushes for 260 yards per game. Georgia Southern wins.

Camellia Bowl: Florida International vs Arkansas State, 4:30 pm December 21. Both teams underwhelmed through the year, although the FIU win against Miami won the season for FIU. But Arkansas State beat Georgia Southern. Arkansas State wins.

New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State vs UAB, 8:00 pm December 21. I’d really like to want to watch this game. But I can’t. Appalachian State wins.

Quick Lane Bowl: Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan, 7:00 pm December 26. Pitt’s defense is going to win this game. And in defensive battles, color me bored. Pitt wins.

Servpro First Responder Bowl: Western Kentucky vs Western Michigan. 11:30 am December 30. Last year, the game was called for weather and deemed no contest. Hopefully this doesn’t happen again. A Western team is going to win. Lets go with the Michigan option, but I’m not really confident.

Armed Forces Bowl: Southern Mississippi vs Tulane. 10:30 am January 4. Who’s going to watch this game? It’s the Saturday after New Years; no one is going to care. That includes me. Tulane wins.

Lendingtree Bowl: Louisiana vs Miami (OH). 6:30 pm January 6^th. Same Sitch. And Louisiana has an 81% chance of winning according to the ESPN Football Power Index. Louisiana wins.

Bowl Game? Well, its better than watching re-runs of “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” Bowls: I’m a sucker for Guy Fieri. I’ll admit it; I’ll watch “Triple D” if I’m not doing anything over just about anything other than Expedition Unknown. But if one of these games on, it trumps the dyed hair one. Barely.

Boca Raton Bowl: SMU vs Florida Atlantic, 2:30 pm December 21. This would be FAR more interesting if Lane Kiffin had held out for a better job than Mississippi and was still coaching for FAU. On the other hand, Sonny Dykes is holding out to see what’s left after the bowl game…if he wants to leave. As far as the game itself, it’s a tossup; SMU has the better offense, FAU has the better defense. Both are fairly balanced offensively, but SMU appears to be challenged with a passing game. That would indicate FAU’s Sophomore QB Chris Robison should have a good game. But will the Owls be up for this game? I’m gonna take SMU, but I’m not confident.

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs Marshall, 1:30 pm December 23. Speaking of Expedition Unknown…just watched the episode about the search for the treasure of mythical pirate Jose Gaspar, who inspired the Gasparilla Pirate Festival that runs this bowl. And I’ll admit, if Scott Frost was still UCF’s coach, I’d have this in the next level of bowl games. But UCF seems to have an 83% chance of winning this game, according to ESPN. UCF wins.

Hawai’I Bowl: Hawai’I vs BYU, 7:00 pm December 24. At 1:00 pm local time, this game kicks off Christmas eve. But Hawai’I (Wait, when did an apostrophe appear in Hawai’i? Does that mean I have to pronounce it “Haw why ee ee” now?) gets to play in this bowl every year. As far as the game goes, it’s a tossup. Hawai’I has the slightly better offense, BYU has the slightly better defense. Hawai’I beat San Diego State; BYU lost to San Diego State. So Rainbow Warriors win, but I’m not confident at all.

Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs Miami, 3:00 pm December 26. Anyone else underwhelmed by Manny Diaz’ first season at Miami? A bowl is a bowl. The odds are giving Miami 6 points, but ESPN gives Miami a 72% chance of winning. Miami wins.

Military Bowl: North Carolina vs Temple, 11:00 am December 27. The Mack Brown revival tour continues against the Owls of Temple. I’d like Temple’s chances more, but in games against comparable talent, Temple lost (by two to Cincy, but UCF slaughtered them 63-21). ESPN gives North Carolina a 70% chance of winning. Tarheels win.

Redbox Bowl: California vs Illinois. 3:00 pm December 30. Cal averages 20 Points per game on offense. They got outscored on the season, giving up 22 points per game. Illinois was equally anemic on offense; they did average 7 more points per game, but only put up 319 yards per game. So while these are two power conference teams in a decent bowl game…don’t expect much offense. Cal is favored by 7, and has a 63% chance of winning. Illinois beat Michigan State and Wisconsin. So if you’re looking for an upset special, this might be it. Illinois wins.

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs Georgia State. 3:30 pm December 31. Only ranked this high because I like Craig Bohl, coach at Wyoming. Otherwise, this bowl won’t have much drama. Wyoming has a 72% chance of winning according to ESPN. Wyoming it is.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs Nevada. 2:30 pm January 3. Frank Solich, last coach of the Nebraska Golden Era, has been the coach at Ohio for 15 years. That’s a long time, and the 76 year old coach is still going strong. But in regards to the game against the Wolfpack, I’ll watch if I’m doing nothing else. Since I’ll be working at 2:30 pm on January 3, I may have it streaming. Ohio wins.

Weirdly Compelling, but for no Real Discernible Reason Bowls: There aren’t many of these. And I’m not sure why they intrigue me. But they do.

Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs Louisville. 3:00 pm December 30. Scott Satterfield’s inaugural season at Louisville exceeded any possible expectations. Joe Moorehead’s second season in Starkville was far less than expectations. Two programs heading in opposite directions? Remains to be seen. But the game is going to be interesting. Louisville’s offense was better according to the stats, but that ended against “Good” defenses. Clemson? Lost 45-10. Notre Dame? Lost 35-17. Kentucky? The Wildcats blew them out 45-13. ESPN says the Bulldog’s have a 64.9% chance of winning. Mississippi State wins.

Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Kentucky. 11:00 am December 31. The teams feature the same type of play; run based offense, stifling defense. Virginia Tech, before the loss to Virginia to end the season, shut out Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh by a combined score 73-0. Kentucky only allows 321 yards and 18 points per game on the season, playing in the SEC. Kentucky won 7 games using an emergency QB; Lynn Bowden is the team leader in rushing, passing and receiving, literally defining the term “All Purpose.” This is the last game to see him play in college. Virginia Tech is favored by three, ESPN gives Kentucky a 58% chance of winning. I’m taking Kentucky.

Liberty Bowl: Navy vs Kansas State. 2:45 pm December 31. Navy averages 458 yards of offense a game; 363 of those on the ground. Every game. Kansas State is more balanced on offense, but is nowhere near as effective. If Navy gets the running game going, they can play keep-away from the Wildcats and shorten the game. I’d give Kansas State more of a chance, but Navy’s defense is not a liability this year, allowing 326 yards per game while facing Notre Dame, SMU, and Houston. Navy wins.

Hey, Lets Get Together at a Sports Bar to Watch This One Bowls: With three kids aged ten and under, and a wife with a busy schedule, I don’t get out much. If I’m going out to watch football, I want to make it count. These are all games that would seem to be worth making time to see.

Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs Washington, 6:30 pm December 21. The farewell game for Washington coach Chris Petersen; against the team he made his name coaching. Boise State’s only loss was to BYU, but they haven’t beaten anyone; their win against Florida State to begin the season is far less impressive now. On paper, the Bronco’s offense and defense are better, but against sub-par competition that number is suspect. And if Washington can keep Washington State’s prolific offense out of the end zone, it can handle Boise State. Washington wins.

Pinstripe Bowl: Michigan State vs Wake Forest, 2:20 pm December 27. Michigan State’s offense is totally contingent on QB Brian Lewerke. If he’s on, the offense rocks. He hasn’t been on consistently since 2017. As such, the offense sputters…a lot. But the defense…the defense is holding opponents to 319 yards per game. So while Wake Forest’s offense is humming along at 473 yards a game, the team is only (only!) averaging 32 points per game, while the Deacon defense allows 409 yards and 29 points per game. Expect Michigan State to play old school Big Ten offense and grind out time of possession behind RB Elijah Collins, the freshman 217 pounder who has ground out 892 yards at 4.4 yards per carry on the season. Michigan State wins

Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M, 5:45 pm December 27. Whooo Hoo, Big 12 reunion night! Oklahoma State’s chances took a big uptick when RB Chuba Hubbard, he of the 1,936 rush yards and 21 TD’s, announced he’d be playing in the bowl game. With starting QB Spencer Sanders out for the season, having to break in a new starting RB (no RB other than Hubbard had more than 224 rush yards; the second leading rusher is Spencer Sanders) against the Aggies. Two seasons in on Jimbo Fisher’s time at Texas A&M, the 7-5 record this year would appear, on paper, to be a regression. Is it? Depends on what you look at, but the offensive skill position players are coming back next year. I’d like to take Oklahoma State, but until the Cowboys have a defense that can stop upper level offenses they won’t be easy picks. Texas A&M wins

Cheez-It Bowl. Air Force vs Washington State, 9:15 pm December 27. Oh, wow, this game looks fun. Triple option flexbone from Air Force versus Air Raid passing game with Washington State. I could see Air Force dominating this one; two or three long TD drives for Air Force will take up a bunch of clock time, and if Washington State sputters at all they’ll have trouble having enough time to catch up. Do I follow the money, which has Air Force favored by 3? Or the ESPN FPI, which has Washington State with a 54.3% chance of winning?  Much as I like the Cougars, I’m taking Air Force to win.

Cotton Bowl: Memphis vs Penn State, 11:00 am December 28. If you’re going to go to a “consolation” game after missing out on the playoff, a game in AT&T stadium in Dallas is a nice alternate. Will either team be “up” for this, though? Memphis beat everyone except Temple, but Ole Miss wasn’t much of a win. Navy was, though, and they took down Cincinnati twice in two weeks. Penn State’s defense throttled Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State, but faltered against Minnesota, then lost contain against Ohio State. Penn State should win this game, but is the confidence there? Memphis will have the mojo in this one. Penn State wins, but doesn’t cover.

Camping World Bowl: Notre Dame vs Iowa State, 11:00 am December 28. Iowa State is far better than its record. Notre Dame, losing tight to Georgia and getting blown out by Michigan, quietly ended the season on a five game win streak. Ok, so their best win is either over Virginia or over Navy? So what…they won. Iowa State’s offense is better, and the defense is close enough to Notre Dame’s to make this game interesting. Notre Dame wins, but its closer than the 67.6% chance of winning that ESPN gives the Irish.

Orange Bowl: Florida vs Virginia. 7:00 pm December 30. How excited would Virginia be to have a ten win season? A win against the Gators would give us a chance to find out. Okay, its not likely; Florida is favored by 15 and ESPN gives them a 82.1% chance of winning. But Florida doesn’t have Bryce Perkins. Perkins threw for 3200 yards, with 18 TD’s, 11 INT’s, and rushed for 745 yards and 11 TD’s. If he can get going against the Florida defense, this game is a tossup, since Florida doesn’t really have an answer for him. That’s a longshot, but it would be awesome if it happens. Florida wins.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Florida State vs Arizona State. 1:00 pm December 31.  Herm Edwards has turned out to be a decent hire for the Sun Devils. Florida State decided Willie Taggart wasn’t the answer, and interim coach Odell Haggins is prepping the team for the bowl game. Arizona State wins this one.

Alamo Bowl: Utah vs Texas. 6:30 pm December 31. Both teams have to be less than enthusiastic about this game. Utah was THIS CLOSE to making the playoff…and choked. Texas came nowhere near the expectations of the beginning of the season. In truth, getting to the Alamo was a win for Texas, because without the win over Texas Tech to end the season Texas was facing a much lower tier bowl. Anyway, while Utah is probably disappointed, the team is still better than Texas. The Utah defense should be able to stuff Texas, and Texas defense won’t have an answer for Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss. Utah Wins.

Birmingham Bowl: Boston College vs Cincinnati, 2:00 pm January 2. Boston College without Steve Addazio as coach will probably not be quite as focused as they should be. Cincinnati is going to be up for this game, after losing to Memphis twice to end the season. While the Cincy offense isn’t great, it is balanced. And Boston College’s defense is shoddy at best, surrendering 480 yards and 31 points per game. I’m taking Cincinnati, but not particularly confident in that pick.

Gator Bowl: Indiana vs Tennessee. 6:00 pm January 2. Talk about teams happy to be here! Indiana finished with 8 wins for the first time since 1993. Tennessee finished the season on a five game win streak to salvage what was a 2-5 start. I’d say Indiana would win in a walk, but Tennessee beat Kentucky and Missouri; both are decent if not good teams. Indiana needed OT to beat Purdue, and lost to Michigan and Penn State. Indiana hasn’t beaten anyone…literally, the best win was over Nebraska. I’m agreeing with ESPN; Tennessee wins.

Getcha Casual Cut Pants and Drinks, These Are Gonna Be Good Bowls: These are the games the WHOLE season has built up to. Watch and enjoy.

Holiday Bowl: USC vs Iowa, 7:00 pm December 27. The minimalist approach of 2019 Iowa versus the freshman wunderkind QB of USC. Iowa’s defense has held opponents to 13 points and 304 yards per game on the season, and has a win over Minnesota on the resume. While the Iowa offense isn’t scintillating, its efficient, whereas the USC defense is allowing more points and yards per game than Iowa normally averages. Iowa should win this, but they would do so by controlling the line of scrimmage and running the ball. Against everyone except Nebraska, that’s been a problem. If USC can get the offense going and get a lead, Iowa is most certainly not built to come from behind. USC’s handled Cal, but got thumped by Oregon. Oregon’s defense is arguably as good as Iowa’s, but Iowa doesn’t have the offense to put a ton of points up. The game is literally a toss up; ESPN doesn’t have a favorite. I’m taking USC, but don’t put a lot of money on it.

Peach Bowl: Oklahoma vs LSU, 3:00 pm December 28. Well, Jalen Hurts at least has experience playing LSU. This game is going to be interesting, because both teams feature strong offenses and developing defenses. Oklahoma has taken too many hits and had too many close calls, not even counting the loss to Kansas State. LSU has demolished everyone except Alabama, which was their closest game at a 5 point win. Needless to say, a close game at that level is pretty good. Oklahoma hasn’t had games against that caliber of opponent; even the wins against Baylor aren’t that level. LSU wins this one, getting to the Championship game.

Fiesta Bowl, Clemson vs Ohio State. 7:00 pm December 28. Whereas LSU/Oklahoma will be fun, but probably not that close, this game will be far more intriguing. These two teams are the epitome of “elite” for 2019. Ohio State has the far better resume; They beat Cincinnati, Michigan State, Wisconsin (Twice!) Penn State and Michigan. Clemson’s best win came against…Texas A&M? Not the Tigers fault that it’s a down period for the ACC, but when crushing Virginia in the ACC championship game is your signature win for the season, that’s a problem. The last team to punch Clemson in the mouth was North Carolina; North Carolina lost because they went for two to win. Considering how battle tested Ohio State is, despite the similarities in play I’m going to take the Buckeyes.

Outback Bowl: Minnesota vs Auburn. 12:00 pm January 1. Such a crushing end of the season for Minnesota. A week after a tenure defining win against #3 Penn State, Minnesota gagged against Iowa to drop out of the playoff race. Then, after beating Northwestern, Minnesota couldn’t handle the Wisconsin defense and lost 38-17 to get knocked out of the conference championship game. Auburn finished the season by beating Alabama. That’s it; that’s the highlight of the season, after losses to Florida, LSU and Georgia knocked them out of the playoff picture. This is a hard game to pick, because the teams are very similar and about the same caliber. Vegas is favoring Auburn by a touchdown. ESPN gives Auburn a 72% chance of winning. I think it will be close, and I wouldn’t be surprised by Minnesota winning, but I’m taking Auburn.

Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs Alabama. 12:00 pm January 1. Hahahahaha. I’m sorry, I’m thinking of the last time I saw Nick Saban, when he was literally having a tantrum on the sideline during the Auburn game, stamping his feet up and down and throwing his headset. And then, I’m struck by the part in Bad lip reading where Jim Harbaugh, when he was coaching the 49ers, was yelling on the sideline that he “wants pie now!!! I want it now!” Oh, you want me to interrupt my giggles to pick a winner? It’s Alabama; Michigan’s offense, while improved, won’t be effective enough against the Crimson Tide defense to offset the points Mac Jones and the Alabama offense are going to score.

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Wisconsin. 4:00 pm January 1. Similar caliber teams, with both fairly motivated to be in the game. Oregon, after the loss to Arizona State in November, couldn’t make the playoff, but proved its point by thumping Utah in the PAC 12 championship. Wisconsin showed better in the Big 10 Championship against Ohio State than they did during the regular season, but they allowed Ohio State to dominate the second half and score 27 unanswered points. That’s problematic. Neither team allows much in a rushing yardage, but both are looser against passing teams. Oregon is the better passing team. Oregon wins.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Baylor. 7:45 pm January 1. So if Baylor could have held on against Oklahoma in either of the two games they lost, this would be a different matchup. Baylor has the offense to hang with Georgia, but Georgia’s defense is next level competition compared to Oklahoma. Baylor’s got a shot, but I’m taking the Bulldogs.

I won’t pick the National Championship yet because…I don’t know who’s in it.

Watch for a post next week with the start of the fantasy season recap.

Well, that was a long break

Hello my readers!

Did you miss me?

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That’s okay, I’ll wait….

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Sorry for the delay in starting this season. I know, I started so well…and then went dark. But, I’ve realized something. This season it was really difficult to get excited about, well, anything. I even questioned whether or not I’d be running my fantasy league.

I know…the horror!

Anyway, you may have noticed that I’m not doing “Pickem” this year. Unfortunately, I think my three partners in crime were as surprised as you all were. Sorry guys; maybe next year.

I will be having a non-sports post shortly, and it will be massive. The reason? The family and I took a trip to Walt Disney World in July, and I’ve written about the trip. The reason it hasn’t been posted yet is that it is well over 10,000 words long and isn’t finished yet. So, expect a five or six part post about the trip. You were warned.

So, for this post? I’m not really going to follow a format, per se. I’m going to talk about Nebraska football; Husker fans, we have a lot to discuss. Then, I’m going to discuss the Fantasy season; how my teams are doing, who I ended up drafting, and some surprises so far.

Are you ready? Lets get started!

Nebraska Football:

The Huskers are now 3-1, after outlasting the surprisingly resilient Illinois Illini on Saturday night. Some quick (and not so quick) observations on the team after four games:

• What’s the offensive identity? Um, hello, Coach Frost? You’re supposed to be the offensive wunderkind here. So how come the offense is, well, a disjointed mess at best? I understand the O-Line isn’t fabulous right now, and that Cam Jurgens is still the best option at center in spite of a case of the yips when snapping, but still…you play to your teams strengths. That’s not being done right now.
• Who’s the I-Back? I know, I know, there really isn’t an I-back anymore, although the team did end up in an Ace-I formation a couple times during the night. But who is the I-Back? Maurice Washington is the best overall contender; he’s big enough to blast through holes, a jackrabbit in the open field, and fast enough to outrun defenders given the chance. The problem is that he is almost too tall to be an I-Back; he’s scraping 6’1″ and that’s hard to pound through the line without getting hurt. And he’s gotten dinged up twice now. Dedrick Mills isn’t bad; he really isn’t. But he isn’t Devine Ozigbo; he just doesn’t have Ozigbo’s second gear in the open field. The closest analogue I can find is Imani Cross, and you know what? That’s a good comparison. The problem is going to be touches; just like Cross, Mills gets better the more he carries the ball. He needs to get into rhythm and start pounding the offense and get “lathered up” before he really gets to be effective. The problem there is, well the same problem the offense seems to have schematically; its not built for a workhorse back, its built for a committee. And if they are going with a committee, he doesn’t get the touches needed to get into that rhythm. You know what happens then? He fumbles; he’s fumbled at the absolute wrong time twice now during the season. Its a problem. Wyatt Mazour is an option, and he was decent in limited time on Saturday. He’s big enough, functionally fast enough, and a good receiver. But he’s not special.
• Which brings us to Wan’Dale Robinson. With Washington out and Mills nursing a sore shoulder, Robinson ran 19 times for 89 yards and a TD, while catching 6 passes for 79 yards and two TD’s. Needless to say, he was almost as dynamic as Adrian Peterson. That leads to the obvious: Should Robinson be the Number One I-Back right now? To discuss, I’m going to list the obvious “cons” of that idea, and answer them as best I can:
  • He’s not big enough. Maurice Washington is 6’1″ and 190 lb. Dedrick Mills is 5’11” and 220 lbs. Wyatt Mazour is 5’9″ and 200 lbs. Robinson is 5’10” and 190 lbs. At least on paper, he compares favorably with all the other backs. The difference is that all the others have more experience and/or time at the training table and weight room. That means that they are probably playing at close to their listed weight, while Robinson is probably playing at around 180 lbs. They may have to be careful using him too much, but that didn’t seem to be a problem Saturday night.
  • He doesn’t understand the offense enough. Okay, I get it; he’s a true freshman. He seemed to understand the offense pretty well Saturday night. Plus, think about it; Greg Bell never grasped the offense last year, and he was a Junior. So lets move past that. And if you want to use his age against him, lets keep in mind that his QB learned the offense pretty well as a true freshman.
  • He’s needed at WR. Well, yeah, he is. Someone needs to keep the defenses honest and stop them from triple teaming JD Spielman. This is actually something I worry about, because the WR corps is really limited right now. Kanawai Noa was taken as a transfer to provide a bigger deep target, and that hasn’t happened at all. Not only does Noa seem to have trouble getting separation from opposing DB’s, but his hands aren’t there. Four catches for 56 yards and a TD is not what they expected from Noa after four games.  In fact, the receiving corps right now is, well, almost entirely Robinson and Spielman; they have 50% of the total passes caught between them That’s a problem of GIGANTIC proportions. Jack Stoll and Maurice Washington do add some additional production, but neither are WR’s. And those additional 18 catches bring the total to just over 75% of total catches for the Huskers. Mike Williams has two catches. Jaevon McQuitty has two catches. You wonder if the loss of Andre Hunt right before the season started is affecting the Huskers more than we know. Missing in action is Kade Warner; he may not be the fastest  WR, but he’s got dependable hands and he’s a bigger target at 6’1″ and 200 lbs. Why isn’t he on the field?
• Of course, we can’t forget that Washington has those charges hanging over his head in California. But in the first half of Saturday’s game, he was very obviously the best offensive option. So until his case is adjudicated, he’s going to play. The injury he suffered Saturday was worrisome, though. (although even at 60% function, he was still making moves that the announcers were ooohing and ahhing over.) So, Washington isn’t really built to run between the tackles; he’s got the heft for it, but he’s taller and spread out more. I’m going to expound just a little more on my thought that Washington should be a WR for Nebraska, instead of an I-Back.
  • As a 6’1″ 190 lb specimen, he’d be a bigger target at WR. And he’s got the third gear that the top WR’s need to be effective.
  • He’s already proven that he can run routes as well as anyone else on the field.
  • He’s bigger, stronger and slightly faster than Robinson, so he should be able to take his position without much trouble. Plus, the two are being used interchangeably anyway; both have learned the route trees of either position, as shown by how easily Robinson was plugged in at I-Back on Saturday.
  • Finally, this would help Washington avoid the types of “Into the tackle box” injuries that he seems to get dinged on. It may not help the hamstring pulls etc, but he won’t get smashed in the middle of the line of scrimmage as often. That’s a plus.
• Overall, Nebraska is very lucky to be 3-1 right now. Lets all keep in mind that this is a VERY young team, with most of the starters underclassmen. Also, keep in mind the lack of true senior leadership; Darrion Daniels came in as a grad transfer and immediately got elected as a captain. While that’s indicative of Daniel’s innate qualities, its also indicative of a team without established leaders in the locker room. Martinez as a captain as well as a Sophomore shows that. I think the season hinges on how the team reacts to the Ohio State game next week. Show well, and 8-4 or even 9-3 in the regular season is probable. Get blown out, and 6-6 is more likely. We will see.

Fantasy Football:

So this season, after I passed my existential crises and went full bore into the fantasy season, I successfully chaired the draft. We have 12 teams this season, and they are a cutthroat bunch. (Doesn’t help that we have four owners who have two teams each.) Here are the results for my draft:

Tres Chico’s Bandito’s, picking 2nd:

1. Alabama DST
2. Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State
3. JJ Taylor, RB, Arizona
4. Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona
5. Ceedee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
6. Denzel Mims; WR, Baylor
7. Amon-Ra St Brown, WR, USC
8. Deejay Dallas, RB, Miami
9. Feleipe Franks, QB, Florida
10. TJ Simmons, WR, West Virginia
11. Mekhi Sargent, RB, Iowa
12. Sean Clifford, WB, Penn State
13. Theo Howard, WR, UCLA
14. Josh Falo, TE, USC
15. Anders Carlson, K Auburn

I was pleased with my DST pick, and reasonably okay with my QB and RB picks. The WR’s were, well, average at best. And then the season started. So far, Taylor has totally underperformed at RB, Franks is injured and out, only Ceedee Lamb is still on my squad, and I’ve remade my team several times. So much for the draft. The team is currently 2-2, with eight regular season games left.

Hey! Where’s Perry?, picking third:

1. Clemson DST
2. JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State
3. Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State
4. Gage Gubrud, QB, Washington State
5. JD Spielman, WR, Nebraska
6. TJ Vasher, WR, Texas Tech
7. Ricky Slade, RB, Penn State
8. Salvon Ahmed, Rb, Washington
9. JT Daniels, QB, USC
10. Charleston Rambo, WR, Oklahoma
11. Jamire Calvin, WR, Washington State
12. Hunter Johnson, QB, Northwestern
13. Aaron Fuller, WR, Washington
14. Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma
15. BT Potter, K, Clemson

Of course, I was happy about this draft for around a day…then I noticed that Gubrud had lost the starting job to Anthony Gordon. Who I just happened to list as the starter for most of the summer until I trusted the pundits who said Gubrud was going to take the job. Luckily, no one else had taken Gordon, so I picked him out. For everyone else, JT Daniels is out for the season, Hunter Johnson hasn’t quite picked up the Northwestern offense, Grant Calcaterra isn’t catching passes, and Jermar Jefferson is injured with an unknown injury. Other than that, the draft was great. This team is 3-1 now and is pretty well set for the immediate future.

Fantasy Notes, Surprises, and Disappointments:

• At QB, Jalen Hurts and Sam Ehlinger are the Nubmer 2 and 3 rated QB’s right now, almost exactly as I predicted. I didn’t expect Anthony Gordon to be number one, although his 9 TD, 570 performance Saturday night skewed the numbers a little. Jamie Newman of Wake Forest is a huge surprise at Number 5. Adrian Martinez at 9 is a disapointment; despite the last two games his average points per game is 25. That’s much lower than I anticipated.
• At RB, Jonathan Taylor is averaging 44 points per game. Chuba Hubbard is averaging 38.25 Points per Game. And Cam Akers is a huge surprise at number three right now. Travis Etienne and Eno Benjamin are behind right now, at 8th and 10th respectively. De’Andre Swift of Georgia, projected to be top five by Fantrax, is back of the pack at 15th.
• At WR, I anticipated Tylan Wallace of Oklahoma State would be good. But no one…and I repeat NO ONE…anticipated Sage Surrat of Wake Forest would be the top WR after four weeks. Guess having competent QB play makes a difference. WR is a tricky slot to pick, since fantasy numbers fluctuate a lot week to week. Exhibit one: Je’Marr Chase of LSU had no catches for 0 points against Northwestern State two weeks ago. Against Vanderbilt, he caught 10 passes for 229 yards and four TD’s.

All right, that’s enough for now. Expect the travel post later this week, and any random posts after are completely possible. Stay tuned.

 

DST, and season notes.

Hello everyone!

Hope you’ve enjoyed my posts the last few weeks. Here’s the last preseason ranking post. Today, we’re talking Defense/Special Teams.

DST: Defense/Special teams will win games for you. Can you win your league without a top DST? Perhaps; it depends on the scoring system used. Two years ago, the league was won by a guy who maxed out his top players, but didn’t grab a top DST. He tried again last year, and didn’t make the playoffs. With my league, DST averaged 33 PPG last year. There are players that will average more than that, but that’s rare; thus I have my “Elite” rating. Otherwise, DST, especially for leagues that count punt return TD’s, can be extremely positive toward winning your weekly games.

Top of the Charts: Two DST’s stand out above all others.

1. Alabama. The Crimson Tide have the most talent and the best defensive scheme in college football. That translates into dominant DST points…usually. Beware the letdown games, as Alabama can get caught in a game that doesn’t mean as much and have a lesser opponent gain a lot of yards and points. But in big games, there isn’t a better DST to have.
2. Clemson. The two are just about interchangeable. In truth, Clemson would seem to have the slightly better schemes, while Alabama has slightly more talent, but that may change over the next few years. In any event, if you have the chance to grab either team, I encourage you to do so ahead of any other DST or player.

Top Tier candidates: After the first two, the rest of the DST’s cluster. That’s okay, though, since if you get any of these teams for your DST you’ll probably be pretty happy.

3. Iowa. The Hawkeye’s snuck up on the overall league last year, outperforming their historical average by a large amount. Can they do it again this year? Considering they didn’t turn over much of the defense, I’d say that’s a yes.
4. Auburn. Kevin Steele isn’t the best head coach, but he is a fantastic Defensive Coordinator. And that showed last year. Auburn has the talent to be a top DST, but unless the offense recovers its mojo this year that will lower the DST output a tad.
5. Mississippi State. The Bulldogs held some high impact offenses in check last year. They held Texas A&M to 13 points. They allowed 24 points to Alabama. They throttled Arkansasholding the razorbacks to 6 points, and pummeled their nemesis Mississippi, allowing the Rebels 3 points in the egg bowl. Defensively, the team is great. They need to improve on special teams; no DST TD’s hurt them overall.
6. Georgia. Kirby Smart is a pretty good defensive coach, so this seems like a good place for the Bulldogs. Georgia and Mississippi State are about equal, but Mississippi State gets the nod because they were significantly better than Georgia last year, from a fantasy perspective. Realistically, you can’t go wrong with the Bulldogs.
7. What has hurt the Wolverines hasn’t been talent or scheme; what has hurt is an offense that can’t produce points consistently, and can’t always move the ball, leaving the defense in bad positions. Until Michigan shows that has changed in a big game this year, I’ve got them ranked slightly lower overall.
8. Another team that battled way out of their weight class last season, finishing ranked 8^th overall. That is so far above their statistical norm, I can hardly quantify it. I’d anticipate them being just as good this year.
9. Normally the cream of the PAC 12, last year was aberrant, finishing ranked 22^nd overall. But the whole team seemed off last year. This might be too high, but based on the talent level and coach, Washington deserves a top ten ranking.
10. I’d have had Miami drop farther IF they hadn’t managed to drag Manny Diaz back as coach. With Diaz at the helm, not only is there some continuity at the top, but a defensive minded coach takes over. The Hurricanes should remain one of the top DST in the nation.
11. Ohio State. Ohio State’s offense surpasses Michigan’s offense so much that, comparing the two, you forget that while Ohio State has the talent, they don’t quite have the same defensive chops the Wolverines do. We’ll see what happens without Greg Schiano as DC.
12. Michigan State. We’ve reached the Big 10 portion of the ratings. Michigan State has better schemes and coaching, but they don’t quite have the talent Ohio State does. So I like Ohio State better.
13. WHAT?!? Why are the Huskers here? Bear with me…I have some reasons. As bad as the Huskers were last year, they actually finished the season above average, ranked 21^st. This isn’t “defensive” ranking, but fantasy ranking. The 11 INT’s helped raise their score, despite a ridiculous amount of points allowed. By every measure, the Huskers have increased their talent and ability on defense heading into the season. So while I am a Husker fan, I’m not putting them here just for that reason; I think year two NebraskaFrost has the chance to be much better.
14. This is a no brainer as well, although LSU has a ways to go to regain their status as a top five DST.

Best of the Rest: So, realistically, you don’t need to carry two DST’s; you only play one per week, and right now you end up with only one bye week every year. You can get a replacement DST if necessary; carrying two just provided you trade bait, and in college leagues that doesn’t matter at all…too many teams to choose from. (Seriously, I think we’ve had one player to player trade in the last 8 years…just one. Compare that to the trades that occur in pro leagues.)

Anyway, the remaining teams are pretty similar; to choose between them, you’d need to evaluate their talent level AND the competition. If you’re going to cover a bye week, best available will work, but only if they have favorable opponents. In other words…you might like Pitt facing Rutgers one week, rather than TCU facing Oklahoma. Even though TCU generally has the better defense, the respective opponents are so different its worthwhile to play Pittsburgh instead.

Here are the Sleepers that might come into play down the road.

Texas. Only problem for Texas is playing in the Big 12, so the chance to get lit up week by week is pretty big. But when they’re on, they are comparable with a top ten DST.

TCU. Same situation. But TCU doesn’t have the talent that Texas does, although arguably they are better coached.

Utah. If the Utes ever get a season where they don’t lose significant numbers of players to injuries, they would break out and win the PAC 12. Hasn’t happened yet.

Washington State. Still waiting to see if the departure of Alex Grinch is going to really affect the Cougars DST potential. So far, only marginally.

California. So far in the tenure of Justin Wilcox, the defense is head and shoulders stronger than the offense. Which is both good and bad, since the offense is so bad that the defense is left in bad positions.

Boston College. The Golden Eagles have the skill to be a top ranked DST, but the talent isn’t quite there.

Well, thats all of the rankings. Is this complete? In a word…no.

I’ll try to update with a new top 200 or so before the season starts…and being honest, the new season starts in just over two months. I have my work cut out for me.

Other Notes:

• Don’t be concerned if you don’t agree with my rankings. I’m used to it. Sometimes I hit big, sometimes I miss. You know what I’m best at picking? Running backs. I’m worst at picking WR’s, at least outside the actual top of the chart.
• Actually, I’m pretty poor once you get past the top 40 or so in each position. If you are trying to get late draft options, I very rarely make the right calls. Why? Because most of the late picks are based on conjecture; based on a projection, or a hunch, or even just based on the team.  As an example, in 2018, I drafted the following WR’s for my Tres Chico’s team: 5th round, Denzel Mims, Baylor. 6th Round, Tyron Johnson, Oklahoma State. 9th Round, TJ Simmons, West Virginia. 11th Round, Taivon Jacobs, Maryland. 12th Round, Marquez Callaway, Tennessee. Mims ended the season as the 43rd ranked WR; Ouch. Johnson ended up 38th. Simmons was 208th, Jacobs 190th, and Callaway 133rd. Simmons and Jacobs were washouts, while Callaway was acceptable for where I drafted him. The moral of the story? Even if you are convinced a player is going to be fantastic, be prepared to change when that isn’t the case.
• My best example was my worst season ever, in 2009. I ended up drafting first, and picked Sam Bradford with my first pick. Keep in mind that in serpentine drafts, you have a very small window of advantage, since you pick first, but then have to wait till the end of second round to take your second pick. Bradford had ended 2008 with 4464 pass yards, 48 TD’s, and only 6 INT’s, along with 5 rush TD’s. He lasted a game and a half. After that, I was lost, because I didn’t have a backup QB to take his place AND I missed out on taking his backup QB. Even if I had, Landry Jones was at best 2/3 the player Bradford was, so not an apples/apples comparison. I ended up winning 3 games that season, and I wasn’t competitive. Moral of this story? Don’t be so fixated on one player that you don’t have a viable plan B. (Secondary moral: A DST or RB are usually better picks early, because there are a lot more top tier options for those slots and you have less impact if you pick badly.)
• As always, feel free to contact me if you would wish to play in my league. I haven’t started harassing my members…yet. But its coming.
• THAT’S RIGHT! BE AWARE! I’LL BE HARASSING YOU SOON TO SEND IN ENROLLMENT FEES!
• If anyone is interested in participating in an NFL league, I am open to that, but I’d need enough participation to set one up. You need at least eight players to have a good league. If you’re interested, leave me a note.
• Final Disclosure: I will be away from my desk until Mid July do to summer and vacations, in that order. Feel free to send me messages, but I may not get back to them until July 15th or so.

Thats all for now. Have a great day, and stay tuned!

WR’s and TE’s, oh My!

Hello everyone! Another week, another post about the latest fantasy football rankings.

This post, we discuss Wide Receivers.

Wide Receiver: While most WR players will not equal the production of a RB, the offset is that you play three per week. There is literally nothing worse than having three WR’s playing and NONE getting any catches or yardage on a given week. So these slots must be chosen wisely. WR1 is going to be the big gun; averaging more than 15 points a week or so with some weeks hitting 25. WR2 should be your “steady” guy; someone who may not be exciting, but will get 60 yards and a TD every week. WR3 can be your “Risk/Reward” guy; they may not get a catch, or they might get 200 yards and three TD’s. The trick, of course, is identifying who’s who. Hopefully this will help.

Top of the List:

1. Laviska Shennault, Colorado. Shenault averaged 26 Points per game last year through 8 games. He got hurt in game eight though, and missed the end of the season. I missed him too; I would have won the league if he had maintained that average for me. Anyway, he should be fully healthy now. Even with a new head coach, he’s the top offensive weapon for the Buffaloes.

Next Three: Shennault is alone at the top, but there are three more who are above the clump of WR1 receivers but not quite Shennault’s level.

2. Rondale Moore, Purdue. If Moore got points for Punt Returns, he’d be elite. As it is, he’s a top receiving target along with getting yards from reverses. Just not quite the same level as Shennault.
3. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State. The first of the “pure” WR threats; he’s not going to run the ball much if at all, but he’s going to get close to 1,300 receiving yards and double digit TD’s.
4. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma. Right now, OU has the best offense in the country; Lincoln Riley has it set up to be able to plug in new players and get production. Lamb takes over as the number one WR, and after an 1,100 yard, 11 TD season he’s going to be huge.

WR1: All are going to average double digit points, and some may explode week to week.

5. Bryan Edwards, South Carolina. Edwards teamed with Deebo Samuel last year in a great one-two combo. Samuel is off to the NFL, so Edwards remains to get the lions share of the receptions.
6. Kalija Lipscomb, Vanderbilt. Lipscomb had 916 receiving yards and nine TD’s last season. The Commodores are breaking in a new QB this year, so Lipscomb will be a great target.
7. JD Spielman, Nebraska. So, Spielman is suffering a bit on rankings because of two factors. One is that he’s not supposed to be the “Number 1” WR; he’s a slot guy, and he’s very good at that, but if the next Stanley Morgan never emerges he won’t be as effective. Two, he has had trouble staying healthy. He’s the sparkplug of the Nebraska offense, so as he goes, the Huskers go, but unless he can get singled up against LB’s in space he’s going to have trouble exploding.
8. TJ Vasher, Texas Tech. He’s 6’6” tall and has 4.4 second speed in the 40 yard dash. Plus, he had 687 yards and seven TD’s last year. He’s the top returning WR this year for Texas Tech.
9. Tyler Johnson, Minnesota. For a team with three RB’s capable of exceeding 1,000 rushing yards, you don’t expect a 1,000 yard WR as well. Johnson did just that last year.
10. Jalen Reagor, TCU. Reagor was the bright spot for a TCU team decimated by injuries last year. This should be a bounceback year for the Horned Frogs, and Reagor will benefit.
11. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama. So, full disclosure: Jeudy is better than his stats and his ranking. Plus, he’s apparently forged a tight bond with Tua Tagovailoa over the offseason, so year two of working together may see some increased synergy. He’s getting some Heisman love, for crying out loud. Anyway, this ranking is too low. He’s not in the top four, but he’s pretty close.
12. Denzel Mims, Baylor. Mims was supposed to be great last year, but he got hurt and wasn’t 100% for a while. He still managed 794 yards and eight TD’s, so not bad, just not the fantasy impact expected. This year, Jalen Hurd and Chris Platt graduated, so Mims get top billing almost by default.
13. Collin Johnson, Texas. Johnson was overshadowed a little by the rise of Lil’Jordan Humphrey, but still managed 985 receiving yards and seven TD’s. With Humphrey taking his services to the NFL, Johnson becomes that much more valuable.
14. Amon-Ra St Brown, USC. Again, with the level of talent available, the performance of the Trojan offense CAN’T get any worse. St. Brown is a great option with JT Daniels slingin’ the ball to him.

WR2. There are going to be a lot of names here. They are all going to be fairly close in projections. I won’t give a ton of info about most of them; these guys may be interchangeable. I will note anyone out of the ordinary.

15. Charleston Rambo, Oklahoma. Picks up where Lamb left off.
16. Justin Jefferson, LSU. As Joe Burrow goes, Jefferson goes.
17. Emeka Emezie, North Carolina State.
18. TJ Simmons, West Virginia.
19. Justyn Ross, Clemson. Ross may be undervalued here, but the Clemson offense spreads the ball around a lot. Ross suffers because Tee Higgins will get thrown too when Ross is double covered.
20. Osiris St Brown. I just realized that the USC WR is this St. Brown’s brother. Given the names, I guess that makes sense.
21. Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon State. Considering the QB play last year, to reach 876 receiving yards was quite an accomplishment. Unless the QB play noticeably improves (Hello, Tristan Gebbia! Time to prove it!) Hodgins will have trouble exceeding the 5 TD’s he caught last year, but if he does his worth increases.
22. KJ Hill, Ohio State.
23. Rashod Batemen, Minnesota
24. Damon Hazelton, Virginia Tech.
25. Elijah Moore, Mississippi
26. Landen Akers, Iowa State
27. Jamire Calvin, Washington State. Just a sophomore, he’s poised for a big jump this year as a sophomore.
28. Aaron Fuller, Washington
29. Theo Howard, UCLA
30. Dez Fitzpatrick, Louisville.
31. Lynn Bowden, Kentucky
32. Sean Riley, Syracuse
33. Devaughn Cooper, Arizona
34. Henry Ruggs III, Alabama
35. KJ Hamler, Penn State
36. Tyler Vaughns, USC
37. Shi Smith, South Carolina
38. Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
39. Sam Jones, West Virginia
40. Johnathon Johnson, Missouri
41. Juwan Johnson, Oregon
42. Bennett Skowronek, Northwestern
43. LC Greenwood, Oklahoma State
44. KeSean Carter, Texas Tech

WR3: These are the calls that may be too hard to make without more data. I’m not going to list them in order, but by impact potential.

Tee Higgins, Clemson. May be overshadowed by Justyn Ross, but Clemson is poised to put up a lot of passing yards. Higgins will take advantage.

Andre Hunt, Nebraska. This one is a gamble, but SOMEONE has to show up as the downfield threat for the Huskers. Hunt had the best spring of all the wide receivers at Nebraska.

Davontavean Martin, Washington State. Its hard to pick which Washington State WR is going to be the top one, since the ball gets spread around so much. Martin has enormous upside, but could cause you heartburn some weeks.

Binjimen Victor, Ohio State. Ohio State doesn’t usually have multiple WR’s with strong fantasy impact, but the offense is poised to be pretty good this year.

Jeff Thomas, Miami. Thomas is better than his stats; if Tate Martell can produce passing yards, Thomas will get the majority of them.

Devin Duvernay, Texas. Suddenly, Texas is poised to have a 4,000 yard passer at QB. I mean, it may not happen, but it could.

Any other Washington State WR: I’ve got three of them within 10 ranking levels. In general, a Washington State WR is pretty much guaranteed to get around 700 receiving yards and 6 TD’s.

Eric Kumah, Virginia Tech. The Hokies have a decent offense…when it works.

Quartney Davis, Texas A&M. Receiving yards should be greater in year two under Jimbo Fisher.

Seth Collins, Texas Tech. The former Oregon State starting QB is finally coming into his own as a WR.

Marquez Callaway, Tennessee. Even in the anemic offense the Vol’s trotted out last year, Callaway managed over 500 receiving yards. He was hurt by lack of receiving TD’s; one doesn’t cut it. With the improvements at Rocky Top, Callaway should be of greater impact this year.

Nick Westbrook, Indiana. Westbrook is an upperclassman, and will be more effective this season.

Riley Lees, Northwestern. Lees takes over for Flynn Nagel; Nagel managed 746 passing yards last year. With new QB Hunter Johnson taking over, Lees should exceed the two receiving TD’s Nagel managed last year.

Tight End: As anyone who follows me knows, I don’t lend a lot of credence to taking a TE early in a college football league. The reason? Most college teams employ a TE as a blocker, not a receiver. So its rare for a college TE to get more than single digit stats in a game. Of course, if you pick a TE that manages 20 points in a game, you probably have won that game, but I digress.

Top Pick: Best of the heap.

1. Shaun Beyer, Iowa. So Iowa produced not one but two number one draft picks last year. TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant combined for 1,279 yards and 13 TD’s last year. Even if Beyer manages half that total, hes worth a pick. If he gets close to 900 receiving yards, then he’s as good as a WR2. That makes him an impact pick.

Next 4: Again, with stats, sometimes you get “clusters.” This cluster isn’t projected quite as well as Beyer, but they are statistically better (on paper) than the rest.

2. Colby Parkinson, Stanford. Parkinson had 7 TD’s last year; this year, JJ Arcega-Whiteside and his 6’6” frame isn’t around to grab red zone targets. Parkinson may be huge.
3. Cheyenne O’Grady, Arkansas. Again, red zone TD’s are going to be huge for the Razorback TE.
4. Baylor Cupp, Texas A&M. Cupp takes over for Jace Sternberger, who had 832 yards and 10 TD’s last year. Jimbo Fisher runs a pro-style offense, so the TE will be an important part of an improving offense.
5. Jared Pinkney, Vanderbilt. Pinkney had 774 yards and 7 TD’s last year, and with a new QB this year he should be the favorite safety valve.

Best of the rest: Again, you only need to carry one TE on your roster; you can trade most in and out at need. These are the best of the rest.

6. Brycen Hopkins, Purdue. Situationally, Hopkins can be as good as a WR, but the Purdue offense is still a work in progress.
7. Miller Forristall, Alabama. The replacement for Irv Smith Jr.
8. Devin Asiasi, UCLA. Oddly, the TE was very productive in the Blur offense of Chip Kelly last year.
9. Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri. Just needs a few more yards than last year.
10. Noah Gray, Duke. Three Duke TE’s combined for 10 TD’s last year. Gray is the only one returning.
11. Grant Calcaterra, Oklahoma. Oklahoma prodcues a ton of yards and points, and Calcaterra is experienced.
12. Pat Freiermuth, Penn State. With a new QB at the helm, the Nittany Lions will use the big target more.
13. Jacob Breeland, Oregon. Breelund suffered injuries last year, limiting his usefulness. He’s healthy now.

Okay, not as wordy as the RB post. That’s good. One more post about DST rankings.

No, I’m not ranking Kickers. You can make your own choices on those.

Watch for the next post later this week. Stay Tuned

Second List: RB’s to pick up

Hello everyone! Hope your week went well.

Here is the next installment of the way to early rankings. Today, we cover Running Backs.

Running Back: So far, this RB group has two players head and shoulders above the rest. After that, you’ve got a couple clumps of similar players.

The Big Dogs:

1. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin. When you average 2k rushing yards and 14 rush TD’s a year, you get some notice. Taylor is running track this spring, and he’s worked on picking up extra speed to go with the 220 lbs. he carries into every game. This isn’t an “if” pick; take Taylor at any opportunity.
2. Eno Benjamin, Arizona State. Benjamin is a better receiver than Taylor, but Taylor scores more TD’s. Almost everyone knows about Taylor; Benjamin was under the radar for much of last year. Year two in the Herm Edwards offense may result in more yards for Benjamin. He’s too good of a player to ignore this year.

RB1: All the players here (with one MASSIVE exception) are going to be stars. Not quite at the Taylor/Benjamin level, but all are worth being your lead back.

(Keep in mind…and this is just a general fantasy note…you need TWO RB’s every week. You don’t have to carry two QB’s if you don’t want to, but you have to have at least two RB’s…and you’ll feel better with three.)

3. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt. It took a while for Coach David Shaw’s system to produce results, but now the run heavy offense he prefers is ready. Vaughn ran for 1,200+ yards last year, and added 170 receiving yards. He won’t go crazy with receptions, but while breaking in a new QB this year he’ll get to be the safety outlet and probably increase his yards.
4. Travis Etienne, Clemson. Okay, so this one seems a little off, and it may be, but I have a reason. Etienne saved the best for the end of the season, picking up 351 rush yards and 5 TD’s during the last three games of the season. All three of those were OUTSIDE the fantasy football season. So his numbers were still good, but not the otherworldly level they look like if you look at pure stats. And, even with enhanced rushing yards, he isn’t a good enough receiver to match Benjamin.
5. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State. Oregon State finished the season 2-10 last year. Despite that, Jefferson eclipsed 100 rushing yards seven times, and two of those games he eclipsed 200 rush yards. The Beavers may need another season to get the defense up to snuff, but the offense should work pretty well this year.
6. JK Dobbins, Ohio State. Dobbins exceeded 1,000 rush yards last year splitting time with Mike Weber. Weber has now graduated, and with a new QB at the helm he’ll be counted on to carry the load. Dobbins is a decent receiver as well, and he should be a good option as a Flex if necessary.
7. D’Andre Swift, Georgia. Elijah Holyfield ate into Swifts yards last year, with both heading north of 1,000 rush yards. Holyfield thought (probably correctly) that the new superstar recruits coming in would steal more of his carries this year, went pro early, and…didn’t get drafted, although he’s been signed by the Panthers as a free agent. Anyway, Swift will now get to be the lead back, and the superstar recruits, while still getting some touches, won’t steal as many as Holyfield did.
8. Max Borghi, Washington State. What people forget about the Air Raid offense is that it is flexible enough to use a RB if needed. Basically, if the defense is dropping eight people into coverage, then the RB gets to take a Dive or a Draw into a defense that only has three people at the line of scrimmage. James Williams had 560 rush yards last year, along with 12 TD’s! Borghi picked up 353 rush yards and seven more rush TD’s, but added 352 receiving yards and four receiving TD’s. If Borghi keeps the receiving yards and gets Williams rush yards, he’s worthy of this slot…and maybe better.
9. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State. Hubbard took over when Justice Hill got hurt, and then didn’t relinquish the job. He’s a decent receiver too, but the Cowboy offense is designed to use complementary backs; someone will rise up to steal some of his touches.
10. Pooka Williams, Kansas. Williams was incredible on a terrible team last year. He should be better this year, especially in new coach Les Miles up tempo, pro style attack. “Should be” is the operative saying, though; he was suspended indefinitely after a domestic violence change in January, missed all of spring practice, got into a diversion program and had the charges dropped, but is still not on the team. So IF he rejoins the team, this is his slot. If the team is forced to play Khalil Herbert as the starter, then this becomes a RB3 pick.
11. Joshua Kelley, UCLA. In a Chip Kelly “Blur” offense, the RB is usually one of the top fantasy options, but not quite as good as the QB since the QB touches the ball every play. At UCLA, the team doesn’t quite have all the pieces together for that. Now, the Blur does utilize multiple RB’s, so Kelley won’t get all the touches, but he’ll get the majority.
12. CJ Verdell, Oregon. Verdell had over 1,000 rush yards last year, but he also reeled in 27 catches for 315 receiving yards. He’s a top end threat, although he will lose some touches to Travis Dye and Darrian Felix.
13. Isaiah Bowser, Northwestern. Bowser powered Northwestern’s charge to the Big 10 Championship game. After taking over for Jeremy Larkin, Bowser finished the last eight games of the season with 864 yards and 6 TD’s. He was held without scoring against Ohio State and Utah, though, and overall his lack of TD’s is keeping him out of the top ten.
14. Scottie Phillips, Mississippi. Once again, you can ignore this one. I’m planning on taking Phillips along with Benjamin when you don’t take them. Phillips will be the bell cow in the attack, since new QB Matt Corral isn’t quite the rushing threat Jordan Ta’amu was.

RB2: So, a top end RB2 is going to be very similar to a low end RB1. And situationally, any RB2 is going to be close to an RB1 in terms of fantasy production. But all of the guys in this group have something going on against them that’s keeping their potential, at least in my eyes, lower.

15. JJ Taylor, Arizona. Taylor should be rated higher, since he finished last season with over 1,200 rush yards. And he would be…if he had scored more than six times. So while I’m anticipating he’ll score more this year, it won’t be exponentially more. But I’d love him at RB2.
16. Jashaun Corbin, Texas A&M. Corbin has the first shot to replace Trayveon Williams and his 1,760 rush yards and 18 TD’s. Corbin was successful while spelling Williams last year, but whether or not he’s ready to step up that big is still in question.
17. AJ Dillon, Boston College. Dillon gets a final season to show the NFL he’s ready; last year, he wasn’t able to stay healthy and it affected his stats. He’d be higher on the list if he was a strong receiving option.
18. Reggie Corbin, Illinois. Is Illinois turning the corner toward respectability? Corbin may be a big reason why. He racked up over 1,000 yards last year, and is poised to do the same this year. Illinois does employee a rotation at RB, though, which will eat into his total touches.
19. Larry Rountree III, Missouri. Rountree no longer has to split time with Damarea Crockett in the Tiger backfield, but again, the lack of a bowl opportunity this season may affect the team more than anticipated.
20. Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma. With the Oklahoma running game usually a three headed attack, Brooks is poised to join Jalen Hurts and Trey Sermon in the backfield this year. Expect a second 1,000 yard season, but don’t expect massive numbers with the other two taking touches.
21. Asim (AJ) Rose, Kentucky. Benny Snell was “The Man” the last two seasons at Kentucky, but he is now taking his punishing running style to the NFL. In limited duty, Rose had 442 yards and five TD’s last year. He’ll be good, but it might take a year to get to the Snell impact level.\
22. Ricky Slade, Penn State. I’m sure Coach James Franklin would have liked for Miles Sanders to return for his Senior year, but when you get drafted in the second round that’s enough justification for leaving. Plus, Slade looked good enough last year in limited action to maybe make Sanders believe he would lose time anyway; Slade scored six TD’s in 45 attempts. That’s a great percentage.
23. DeeJay Dallas, Miami. When Miami was 5-1 and rolling into the Virginia game, no one would have counted 2018 as a “lost” season for Miami. After a four game losing streak mid season, and then coach Mark Richt suddenly retiring after the season, I’d say “lost” is apt. Dallas showed he’s ready to step into the starting role last season, and should be great in that slot.
24. Salvon Ahmed, Washington. Ahmed did a decent job backing up Myles Gaskin last year, and should be set to expand his role this year.
25. Stevie Scott, Indiana. Very quietly, Scott had more than 1.000 rushing yards last year. He won’t be flashy, but if you’re looking for a RB2 to get 16 points every week, he’s a good option.
26. Najee Harris, Alabama. Damien Harris ran for 876 yards and nine TD’s last year, and Josh Jacobs ran for 640 yards and 11 TD’s. Jacobs was a first round pick for Oakland; D Harris went in the third round to New England. There will be competition for touches; it’s Alabama, after all, but N Harris should pick up the larger proportion of the other twos yards. If he gets more TD’s (he had four last year) that would help his fantasy prospects as well.
27. James Gilbert, Kansas State. So, in year one of the new regime, expect a lot of rushing attempts. Gilbert is a grad transfer from Ball State, so his experience should put him at the top of the heap.
28. Tru Wilson, Michigan. Wilson will have to share time with Chris Evans, but he showed a lot of potential in the Michigan Spring game.
29. Connor Heyward, Michigan State. Michigan State’s offense has to get better this year. Heyward is a good receiver out of the backfield, so his combo platter of skills translates into fantasy production.
30. Deon Jackson, Duke. Jackson had his biggest game in the loss to Pitt, rushing 10 times for 169 yards, along with catching three passes for 89 yards and a TD. I would probably have him a little higher on the list if I’d known who he was; Duke isn’t exactly a RB fantasy paradise. He needs double digit TD production to jump much higher, although he’s going to pick up 250 or more receiving yards to flesh out his numbers.
31. Kylin Hill, Mississippi State. Hill may be more of a factor this year without Nick Fitzgerald under center and Aeris Williams stealing carries at RB.
32. JaTarvious Whitlow, Auburn. Whitlow has the ability, but if Auburn’s offense sputters again his numbers won’t match his ability. Kam Martin and Shaun Shivers will steal carries too, but he’ll be serviceable as a RB2.
33. Keaontay Ingram, Texas. Ingram was second fiddle to Tre Watson, with both RB’s picking up 700 rush yards and three TD’s. Ingram needs to steal some red zone TD’s from his QB; Sam Ehlinger ran for 16 short yardage scores last year.
34. Trey Sermon, Oklahoma. The Sooners have a platoon of RB’s; Sermon will get some yards but he won’t get all the touches he could on another team.
35. Tario Fuller, Purdue. So Purdue gets to keep Jeff Brohm as coach. Fuller gets the benefit, taking over for DJ Knox.

RB3: Okay, so I’m not going to leave info about everyone here; if you can’t figure out that Mekhi Sargent of Iowa is going to get around 1,000 yards and ten TD’s on the season, I can’t help you. These are the guys who you use if necessary; In other words, these guys are the backups you plug in when needed, or when your starters face a situation that’s tough to get good fantasy production from.

36. Mekhi Sargent, Iowa
37. JaMycal Hasty, Baylor.
38. Trevor Speights, Stanford.
39. Kene Nwangwu, Iowa State.
40. The RB’s of the University of Minnesota. Mohamed Ibrahim ran for 1,160 yards and nine TD’s last year. At the beginning of the season, he was third on the depth chart. Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith are back from injury, and any of the three could start. The second stringer may get close to 1,000 rush yards.
41. Rakeem Boyd, Arkansas
42. Raheem Blacksheer, Rutgers
43. Moe Neal, Syracuse.
44. Armand Shyne, Utah.
45. Dedrick Mills, Nebraska. Well, maybe…if he’s the starter. If Maurice Washington avoids jail time, he could be the starter too. Or Jaylin Bradley. Or even, god forbid, Brady Belt, the walkon who started the spring game.
46. Beau Bisharat, Colorado
47. Lamical Perine, Florida
48. Clyde Edwards–Helaire, LSU
49. PK Kier, Virginia

Best of the rest: Can any of these guys help? Yes. Probably. But they have some issues; keep that in mind.

Cam Akers, Florida State. He’s got the potential; he ran for 1,024 yards as a freshman, but fell back last year. That was more “new scheme” than anything else; he could very well erupt this year. That being said, if the offense continues to sputter, his game will drop off as well. He’s a gamble.

Maurice Washington, Nebraska. Okay, I’ve said it before, but Washington is a huge risk/reward pick. As a freshman, he averaged 5.9 yards per rush, as well as pulling in 24 catches for 221 yards and a TD; that was 4^th on the team. He showed enough as a freshman to get the first shot at replacing Devine Ozigbo. But after missing most of the Spring, he’s got some catchup to do. Now, personally, I think Washington has more of a future at WR in the NFL; he’s 6’1” and 190 lbs, so if he can keep his weight at 205 he’ll be a good sized WR with a lot of speed and good hands. Nebraska should at least talk to him about it, especially since he’s shown a propensity for catching the ball. As an all-purpose I-Back, if he’s the starter he’ll stay on the field; none of the other options are receiving threats to speak of.  But he’s a gamble early.

Kennedy McKoy West Virginia. McKoy had over 800 rush yards last year, so he’s not a newbie. But new coach Neal Brown is making tweaks to the attack; in an “Air Raid” offense, the RB is not the main man; he’s the change of pace guy. Brown is still a “Air Raid” coach, but his offense isn’t identical to Dana Holgorsen. Anyway, McKoy is probably not going to be a good early pick, but late in the draft?

(I say that a lot…”Late in the draft…” sorry, but its true. There are the obvious picks, and there are the picks where you say Wellll, maybe… but there are only so many ways to indicate that. I’ll try to do better.)

Rico Dowdle, South Carolina. His ability is greater than his numbers; unfortunately, South Carolina hasn’t been built for big offensive numbers since Will Muschamp took over as coach. But he’s experienced and steady.

AJ Davis, Pitt. Hey, Qadree Ollison and Darrin hall combined for 2,357 yards and 21 TD’s last year. Even 1/3 that number would be 780 rush yards and 7 TD’s. That’s worth a late pick.

Antonio Williams, North Carolina. More of a hope that Mack Brown can work magic once again in Chapel Hill, but Williams is experienced enough to surprise people.

Ta’Zhawn Henry, Texas Tech. So, Matt Wells runs an Air Raid offensive system. But, he uses a RB a lot more than Kliff Kingsbury did. A true Air Raid RB will run for around 900 yards and catch passes for around 500 yards. That’s worth a pick, especially as a deep sleeper.

Wow, I’ve gone for over 2,600 words on this one. Time to end this. Watch for the next post later this weekend. Stay Tuned!

Way to early list of Fantasy rankings

Hello All! Welcome to the first installment of the Matt C fantasy football college player rankings.

Why is this “Way Too Early?” Well, keep in mind that while the starting lineups for some teams are set, others are still really fluid. As an example: Nebraska has an established starting QB. At I-Back, either Maurice Washington or Dedrick Mills could end up starting, but neither are currently on campus. So starting I-Back is in flux. After JD Spielman, the WR position is pretty fluid as well. So picking a second WR from Nebraska might be difficult to do.

I won’t do my normal “Elite,” “Tier 1” and “Tier 2” rankings in this list; after all, I have three teams (Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Maryland) that I haven’t been able to post rankings for yet. So, this is just a really rough draft of what I think will be the top fantasy performers in each position group. Lets get started.

Quarterback: This is a ridiculous QB class. There is no clear cut, above the rest players in this group; There is one who is a little higher than the others, then a big clump of players all near the same rank. Unless something clears up, choosing a QB this year is going to be way more about luck than informed guesses.

Top of the Chart:

1. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma. And yes, I just about typed “Alabama” as his school. Hurts is NOT a perfect fit for the Lincoln Riley offense in Oklahoma; he can do the job, but don’t delude yourself, it isn’t perfect. Hurts is more of a runner than a passer; both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were better passers than runners. Hurts may very well eclipse 1,000 rush yards next season, but he probably won’t hit the 4,000 yard threshold passing that Murray did. Needless to say, I think he’s still going to be the top fantasy performer.

QB1 Options: These are all good QB options to use every week. But they aren’t (quite) as good as Hurts…which means very little overall, but they are lesser options. Please keep in mind these rankings may change as more info comes available.

2. Sam Ehlinger, Texas. Here’s why Ehlinger is tough to truly gauge; he rushed for a pedestrian 486 yards last year, but added 16 rush TD’s. That’s crazy; that’s Tebow level. Basically, he’s a red zone threat from a spread offense to run for a TD. But you can’t guarantee that will happen, so who knows how many actual TD’s he’s going to get on the ground? He’s not a breakaway threat like Murray last year, so he’s not going to get the “game changing” rushing yards, but his TD threat is immense. He could end up better than Hurts, but will he? I’m not impressed enough with his pass yard potential to move him there…yet.
3. Bryce Perkins, Virginia. Opposed to Ehlinger, Perkins is going to get a lot of rushing yards to go with rush TD’s. He had over 900 yards on the ground last year, and should be around that point again this year. Eclipse the 1k mark, and his overall points will be near Hurts, but I don’t think he’s going to go quite that high. Plus, Virginia isn’t built for a passing attack where the QB throws for more than 3,000 yards; without the additional passing yards, he probably won’t be quite as good as Hurts.
4. Adrian Martinez, Nebraska. I’m going to have to think very carefully about this one. Martinez finished as the 11^th ranked QB last year, despite missing a full game on the season. Martinez had 629 rush yards and 8 TD’s last year; he should improve on that this year, but how much? I’m okay with how I’m rating his passing progression; I can see Martinez eclipsing 2,000 passing yards and 25 TD’s pretty easily. But his rushing numbers are proving troublesome to me.
5. Joe Burrow, LSU. Burrow started REALLY slowly last year…yes, I drafted him, and I dumped him because he was not performing well enough to keep. But he picked up at the end of the year. Just like with Martinez, the limiter here is the rush yards; he’s not supposed to be the focal point of the rush game, but may end up that way due to the opponents LSU faces.
6. Skylar Thompson, Kansas State. Okay, this is the first name that surprised me. But, on reflection, it makes sense. Thompson has experience, and he’s shown he fairly decent as a runner and a passer. New coach Chris Klieman runs an offense with the QB as the triggerman; they get most of the touches and yards. So even if Thompson is average in this offense, he’s going to have a lot of fantasy impact. The only thing that could change this is injury; Thompson has had trouble staying upright. If he loses the job, he won’t get it back.
7. Matt Corral, Mississippi. I remember watching Corral swagger around the sidelines after taking over as QB when starter Jordan Ta’amu was injured. As a freshman, this guy oozes confidence in himself…to the point of being arrogant. As a player, he’s got the skills and abilities to be a top fantasy option, but he’s got the “gunslinger” mentality…without the experience to go with it. So his potential for mistakes (read: INT’s) is pretty large.
8. Keytaon Thompson, Mississippi State. Thompson started the game against Stephen A Austin last year, when starter Nick Fitzgerald was suspended. He went off for 364 passing yards, 5 pass TD’s, along with 109 rush yards and two rush TD’s. So the potential is there. But how will he respond against better opponents?
9. Ryan Willis, Virginia Tech. The Hokies have been snakebit at QB the last few years. Jerod Evans blew up in 2016, thought he was the top of the heap, and left a year early. Josh Jackson expected to get another year to get ready, but was thrown to the wolves. Then Jackson got hurt early last year, and Ryan Willis stepped in. Willis did well enough to cause Jackson to transfer, but Willis is getting pushed from behind as well. Watch out if one of his backups blows up in fall camp.
10. Justin Fields, Ohio State. There is the potential for a huge fantasy performance from an Ohio State QB; Dwayne Haskins finished the season #4 last year, and he didn’t have the rush yards that prior Buckeye QB’s have garnered. But Fields wasn’t the best QB in the offense in the spring; he may have the biggest upside, but he may need a year to prove that.
11. Anthony Gordon, Washington State. Okay, so transfer Gabe Gudrud was imported to take the starting job, but Gordon did well enough in the spring to keep the job for himself. Leach tends to name a starter and keep him in the game; just be sure who’s the starter.
12. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama. Ahhhh…here we have the example of how Heisman quality stats don’t necessarily equal Fantasy performance. Tagovailoa is one of the best QB’s in the nation, and he’s one of the favorites to win the Heisman. He’s going to throw for more than 3,000 yards and get 30 or more passing TD’s. BUT…he’s not a runner. He’s not going to run for enough yards to crack the top ten QB ranking. So he’s definitely worth taking as a QB1. But not for a flex spot.
13. Brock Purdy, Iowa State. With a full year in the system, Purdy is now poised to break out. I may even be underselling him a tad, because in seven games last year he ran for 241 yards. He very well could exceed 500 yards this year, moving him further up the list.
14. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M. So, QB’s in Jimbo Fisher’s offense are usually good, but not great fantasy options. Course, at Florida State, the QB’s were not running options, for the most part. Mond ran for over 300 yards last year, and I expect he’ll be more of an option this year after Trayveon Williams graduated.
15. Khalil Tate, Arizona. If you’re looking for a sneaky good pick late, Tate is going to be a good one to remember. Year one in Kevin Sumlin’s offense wasn’t great; year two can’t help but be better. He’s an elite rushing talent, so if he can get fully integrated into the offense (and stay healthy) he very well could end up much higher on this list.
16. Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State. This is a guess, based on projected stats for the position. Sanders seemed to have a very slight advantage coming out of spring practice over Dru Brown. Sanders has the higher upside, as Brown is now a senior, but either could end up the starter.
17. Austin Kendall, West Virginia. Kendall transferred from Oklahoma rather than go up against a THIRD transfer that was usurping the starting job. Kendall also has a relationship with new coach Neal Brown; Brown was recruiting Kendall to Kentucky before taking the Troy Head Coaching job.

QB2: Okay, you need one QB to start every week. You can put (in most college leagues, anyway) a QB in at flex, and/or you need a second QB during bye weeks. So you will be drafting, unless you are supremely confident in your ability to pluck a QB from the weeds during the season, a second QB. These are all going to be decent options; they won’t necessarily win your league, but they will keep you from losing.

(and yes, I’m not giving as many details for these. I mean really, do you want a 10,000 word expose on potential fantasy picks? These aren’t as important as the top picks. I won’t talk about them as much.)

18. Kelly Bryant, Missouri. Bryant should be fine, but Missouri lacking a bowl game may impact how the team performs.
19. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. The player who beat out Bryant ends up being ranked beneath him. Why? Bryant has wheels; he’s a running threat. Lawrence is probably willing, but he’s not going to take off and run on his own.
20. Quentin Harris, North Carolina. If you’re looking for a flex player, Harris may be one to target, as he may slide under the radar.
21. Justin Herbert, Oregon. If Herbert was playing for Chip Kelly, he’d be top 5.
22. Shea Patterson, Michigan. Patterson is fine, but the Michigan offense just isn’t built for huge QB fantasy numbers.
23. James Blackman, Florida State. With Deondre Francois removed from the team, Blackman will start by default. Ignore the Alex Hornibrook sightings; Hornibrook doesn’t have the skills to take the job from Blackman.
24. Feleipe Franks, Florida. Shhhhh…don’t read this one. Because I want to take him late and gloat.
25. Steven Montez, Colorado. Montez is decent, but without enhanced running abilities he maxes out around this spot.
26. Tyler Huntley, Utah. Huntley has the potential to be a top 20 fantasy performer, but his inability to stay healthy keeps him lower.
27. Tate Martell, Miami. Martell has to prove he can do the job, but if you need a QB2 I think you’ll be happy if he’s available.
28. Charlie Brewer, Baylor. Baylor is going to continue to improve, and Brewer should take advantage.
29. JT Daniels, USC. Daniels should be ranked higher, but the turmoil at the school is lowering his ceiling.
30. Sean Clifford, Penn State. Clifford beat out uber-QB Tommy Stevens, two year heir apparent to Trace McSorley, in the spring, causing Stevens to transfer.
31. Jake Bentley, South Carolina. Bentley is a gamer, but a Will Muschamp team is never going to make offense a premium.
32. Peyton Ramsey, Indiana. Ramsey threw 12 INT’s last year; reduce those, and his fantasy potential jumps.

Best of the rest: Keep these in your back pocket in case you need them…they are the true “deep sleeper” picks.

Alex Delton, TCU. TCU gives QBs decent stats, and Delton should fit the offense pretty well

Jacob Eason, Washington. Eason tore and ACL in 2017 in Georgia’s first game, was supplanted by Jake Fromm, and knew he wasn’t going to get the job back. He’s still rusty after all the time off, but the offense is built for a good QB to shine in.

KJ Costello, Stanford. Costello threw for 3,500+ yards last year, with 29 TD’s and 11 INT’s. That’s TONS higher than normal for a Cardinal QB. This year, he doesn’t have Bryce Love or JJ Arcega-Whiteside to help out, so his numbers may be even higher. OR…the Cardinal could go back to doing just a run heavy offense. Without that knowledge, he’s a risky pick.

Tommy DeVito, Syracuse. Eric Dungey ended the season the 9^th ranked QB, and DeVito filled in admirably when he was hurt. But DeVito isn’t the runner Dungey was.

Nate Stanley, Iowa. If you want consistent production from a veteran, Stanley’s your man. Plus, at least once a year he erupts for a big game.

Tristan Gebbia, Oregon State. Okay, while I want Franks, I am planning on grabbing Gebbia as a QB3 if possible. So there.

That’s all for now. I’ll have another post later this week for RB’s, then over the weekend for WR’s and TE’s, and then maybe the DST’s. Stay tuned!

Here we go again

It happens every year.

Hello, my faithful fans and followers. Yes, all eight followers, but tens of readers. I have returned from hiatus to add to my blog once again.

Every year, I intend to continue the blog after the football season winds down…add observations about the college basketball activities, talk college baseball, NFL draft, all those other things that occupy time during the offseason.

And I never do. Life always happens, and I just let my blog go.

Sorry about that.

So, what finally brings me back to the ‘Net now?

What else? The start of rankings for the fantasy football season!

That’s right, I’ve started my lists already. Most (if not all) of the college football spring practices are done now, so some initial decisions can be made and rankings can be established.

My biggest “hit” post last year had to do with how I prepared each week to build my fantasy team. Since it seems like people like to hear that, I’ve decided to do that again this year. So, here’s my description of how I start my fantasy football rankings.

Some things to keep in mind:

• I rank players several different ways. Some of it is the same as normal (ie Pro league) terms, like QB1 (starting fantasy QB). Some are my own rankings, like “Elite” (better pick than a defense, should be taken regardless) and “Tier One” (starting caliber, worth taking, but a defense is usually worth more at the same point in the draft.)
• Not everything is logical. That seems counter-intuitive, but sometimes you take a gut feeling and roll with it. Some of it is informed; will Adrian Martinez have more points this year fully healthy and a full season in the system at Nebraska? Yes! Is that guaranteed? NO! Will Jalen Hurts be as good as Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray at Oklahoma? Maybe!

I started with the top 600 scoring players from last season. I printed this out the day after the final day of the fantasy season. Why? Because the numbers still accumulate after the end of the fantasy season, since games continue through the championship games and the bowl games. The numbers change too. Thus, I take the stats from end of regular fantasy season in order to be able to compare apples to apples (no need to give Tua Tagovailoa three additional games of stats, his totals were high enough.) My goal is to review the players by position; QB’s, RB’s, WR’s, TE’s and then DST’s.

Then I start going through the QB’s.

QB:

• Wow, a ton of experience is gone from last year. Of the top 16 QB’s last year (including luminaries like Kyler Murray, Trace McSorley, Drew Lock and Gardner Minshew) only 4 QB’s come back. Highest Ranked returning QB is Taylor Cornelius of OK State, followed by Sam Ehlinger of Texas and Adrian Martinez of Nebraska….wait. Cornelius is gone. So yes, I’m fallible. After Martinez is Tagovailoa.
• Some notable “flops” from a fantasy perspective last year: Brian Lewerke, Michigan State; Malik Rosier, Miami. Both expected to be top 20 QB’s, Lewerke finished at 51^st, Rosier at 54^th. Ouch.
• After going through the QB’s, I hit the RB’s…and realize that this will be a heck of a lot easier going by team.

(Like I’ve said, be flexible when doing research. You never know when stuff will change)

Teams and General Observations:

• Alabama is easy. Tagovailoa returns. Najee Harris, the number three back last year who still averaged 8 PPG, returns, and should be decent. Jerry Jeudy, for a few games, was averaging 20+ PPG. That’s close to “flex” player status, which is unusual, to say the least, for a WR.
• Another notable “fantasy flop”: Khalil Tate. It should have been a match made in heaven, with Coach Kevin Sumlin taking full advantage of Tate’s explosive skillset. Sadly, that never materialized. He’s back, but no idea how well its going to work in year two. We’ll have to see.
• Arkansas is probably a dumpster fire for another year. Apparently, the transition to Chad Morris’ system is hitting some bumps.
• Who’s going to be Auburn’s new QB? Not that Jarrett Stidham was all that, but he was steady. No idea who’s going to win that battle.
• Arizona State’s Eno Benjamin, if he stays healthy, is an “Elite” RB fantasy option.
• Baylor’s Charlie Brewer trended up through the season, but he threw too many INT’s.
• Boston College’s AJ Dillon at RB would be an “Elite” RB option IF he was a receiver out of the backfield. If he can muster up even 200 receiving yards, that’s equal to an Elite rating. Its that close. As it is, a RB2 is still pretty good if you can get him.
• No, the rest of Boston College is not worth looking at. Yikes.
• Same with Cal. The Bears offense is not geared to provide good numbers for any skill position.
• At Clemson, Travis Etienne added 600 yards to his totals during the ACC Championship game and the playoff games. That’s nuts. He’s an Elite RB option this year. However, as much hype as Trevor Lawrence has garnered, that doesn’t equate to fantasy potential. Why? He doesn’t run the ball. So even with 3600 passing yards and 30+ TD’s, he’s going to be a low QB1/High QB2. Justyn Ross has a lot of upside. I don’t know if he’s going to be as big as he seemed during the end of last season, but he’s going to be good.
• Colorado’s Laviska Shennault was averaging 26.12 PPG over the first 8 games of the season; that includes the game he got hurt. If he comes anywhere near that over a full season, he’s near Elite “All Purpose” status, not just elite WR. But…he can’t stay healthy. He is still bothered by that injury from last season, and missed spring practice. That’s a terrible sign. Colorado’s season depends in a large part on Shennault’s performance. No pressure or anything.
• For all the Duke offensive acumen, they don’t have a ton of yards and points. If Quentin Harris is the starter, he will be a good QB2 option. Deon Jackson is a fringe RB2 option, or a really good RB3.
• Who thinks Alex Hornibrook made a good decision to transfer to Florida State? Okay, so the weather there is a heck of a lot nicer than Wisconsin, but Hornibrook isn’t going to beat out James Blackman at QB. Its not going to happen. Okay, granted, I think Wisconsin was going to make him “medically unfit” to play and keep him off the field, but he could have gone a lot of places that needed a QB. Florida State seems an odd choice.
• Whoever referred to Georgia QB Jake Fromm as “Jake Fromm State Farm” should probably be punished. I can’t help thinking he should be wearing Khaki’s now.
• Georgia Tech is transitioning from a Flexbone option to a Air Raid option offense. In other words: No idea who’s the starters for any position yet. So not rating them till later.
• So, everyone knows I don’t like to draft TE’s early…they don’t average enough points to make it worthwhile. (In college leagues, anyway.) Iowa had two TE’s last year who combined for 1,200 yards and 13 TD’s. Granted, TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant were apparently generational talents (Both were drafted in the first round of the NFL draft.). But even if Shaun Beyer can take over for one of them, he’ll be worth taking next year as a TE.
• So, Kansas State decided to replace Bill Snyder with Chris Klieman, the former coach at North Dakota State University. So two things: 1. Snyder wanted his son to get the job. 2. Snyder is still involved in the program. How the hell is Klieman supposed to succeed in that environment? Now, if he can get going, I think the offense is going to be awesome…but it could also be a dumpster fire.
• Les Miles may very well bring Kansas back. But it won’t be this year. Especially if RB Pooka Williams remains suspended from the team. Williams was charged with domestic battery following an incident in December. He received a diversion from the judge in the case, and as long as he abides by the rules will not have to go to court. Khalil Herbert is serviceable if Williams isn’t reinstated, but he certainly isn’t as good.
• So, did Bobby Petrino lose his fastball after crashing his motorcycle with his “secret lover” riding behind him? Something was off for him over the last few years, and he left Louisville in terrible shape. I mean, if he had tried to crash the program into the ground he couldn’t have done a better job. New coach Scott Satterfield should get the program back, but this may not be the year.
• For LSU, Joe Burrow seemed to turn the corner over the last two games of the year; 664 passing yards, 7 TD’s, one INT, along with 124 rush yards, 3 rush TDs against Texas A&M and UCF. In case you are counting, that’s an average of 41.48 PPG. Of course, only one of those games counted in the regular season…and no one had Burrow playing in the championship game. Whoops. If he can average about 275 pass yards, two TD’s, and 50 rush yards and a TD, then that’s 28 points per game. I’d take that any day of the week.
• So the last time Mike Locksley tried his hand as head coach, he punched out an assistant. That, on top of going like 2 – 47 (okay, I exaggerated…he went 2-26) led to his dismissal from New Mexico. So how the hell does Maryland, after the disaster that was the DJ Durkin era, decide to hire Locksley? Everyone deserves a second chance, but the optics on this are horrendous. Even worse? I have no idea how to project yards or anything for this team; I don’t have enough data. So Maryland players go unranked until at least August.
• So, Alex Hornibrook transferring to Florida State? Doesn’t seem like a good idea. Tate Martell from Ohio State transferring to Miami (after Justin Fields transferred to Ohio State) is a much better plan. New coach Manny Diaz got to see how returning QB N’Kosi Perry performed last year. That won’t help Perry; you could argue he was thrown to the wolves before he was ready, but in College football, as a QB, you have to be ready to go. Anyway, Martell is going to start, and probably perform pretty well.
• I don’t care what Michigan does to “revamp” the offense…I’ll believe its going to get more yards and points when I see it.
• Minnesota has Rodney Smith, Shannon Brooks and Mohamed Ibrahim returning at RB. If all three are healthy, all three are a threat to break 1,000 yards of rushing.
• I really want to think that Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke is fully healthy and going to look like he did in 2017. But I’m not counting on it.
• Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez is going to be good this year, but be realistic; he’s not going to improve exponentially. More to the point; only JD Spielman returns at WR, and he’s still recovering from injuries. I-Back Maurice Washington may be in jail when the season starts. Walkon I-Back Brody Belt stole the show at the Spring game, running for 53 yards while playing for the Red Team (The starters and scholarship players). JUCO Transfer (formerly of Georgia Tech) I-Back Dedrick Mills joins the team (hopefully, still has some academic issues) in August, and he may take the starting job. I say may…because the last JUCO transfer who we assumed would be the starter was Greg Bell last year, and that didn’t work at all.
• The two QB’s from last season at North Carolina, Chazz Surratt and Nathan Elliott, are no longer fighting for the job. Surratt moved to LB; Elliott moved to Arkansas State as a grad assistant coach. Don’t be surprised if Freshman Sam Howell steals the job this summer.
• Apparently, the other QB’s at Ohio State decided they didn’t want to compete with Justin Fields for the starting job…or they heard the fix was in. Tate Martell transferred to Miami. Four QB’s played in the spring game, but the starting job was being decided between Matthew Baldwin, and Justin Fields. In the game, Fields went 4 of 13 passing for 131, while picking up 38 rush yards and a TD. Baldwin, playing for both teams, went 20 of 36 for 246 yards, two TD’s, two INT’s.  It would appear Baldwin has a better command of the offense; both INT’s were against the top defense. Baldwin just announced he would be transferring closer to his family in Texas. Whoops. Anyway, Fields is going to start, and he better be awesome, because there is no longer and depth behind him.
• Jalen Hurts as the starter in Oklahoma at QB means the dropoff from Kyler Murray won’t be drastic, although I don’t think Hurts is quite as good.
• Tristan Gebbia is going to start at Oregon State this year. There, I said it. Then again, I said Gebbia would be the next starter at Nebraska…and I still think he should have been. But I digress.
• Rondale Moore at Purdue is going to be an elite WR option.
• Rutgers is going to be a non factor, fantasy wise. Their returning QB had four TD’s and 18 INT’s last year…and he’s the best returning option. Yikes. That being said, Raheem Blackshear could be a very under the radar situational option through the year…he’s going to get receiving yards and rushing yards.
• You could do worse than KJ Costello from Stanford as a QB2. Even after losing Bryce Love at RB and JJ Arcega-Whiteside at WR.
• Eric Dungey was great at Syracuse. He ended up the 9^th ranked fantasy QB last season, and the 12^th ranked player overall. But he didn’t finish a SINGLE season healthy as the QB of the Orange. Tommy DeVito is a bigger, more polished version; he should be a better passer, and a decent runner. So QB1 is a definite option. Elite? Probably not…but situationally he’ll be awesome.
• If Jalen Reagor at TCU can stay healthy, he’s a fantasy WR1. Not quite Elite, but close.
• If you don’t pick up Sam Ehlinger from Texas as a QB, you will be sorry.
• Same with Collin Johnson from Texas at WR.
• It will be very interesting to see who starts at QB at Texas Tech. “Air Raid” QB’s tend to get enough passing yards/TD’s to reach QB1 Status, despite lacking rushing yards. Alan Bowman is the quintessential “Air Raid” QB; tall, strong armed, and capable of dissecting a defense. The problem? The new coach runs a hybrid offense, no longer a pass only offemse. Now, the offense is going to include some designed QB runs; Bowman had issues with a collapsed lung from a big hit suffered in September. That plays into Jett Duffey’s hands. The other QB ran for 369 yards last year…that’s amazing in an offense not designed for zone read or designed QB runs. In fact, Duffey led the team in rushing. Oh, did I mention he completed 67.5% of his passes? Bowman may be the better quarterback, but Duffey fits the new Matt Wells offense better. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the QB.
• UCLA is about a year away still from breaking out the full “Blur” offense, just due to talent not fitting the system. Joshua Kelley will still be a top RB1 option though.
• I love Utah as a team. But unless Tyler Huntley can stay upright, the team won’t make the next step up in competition. And he hasn’t managed to stay healthy yet. Also, with the loss of RB Zach Moss, Utah is now missing the component that could help Huntley from taking so many hits running the ball.
• Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt is going to be an RB1 this year, and a fringe “Elite” candidate.
• Ummmm…did you know Bryce Perkins, QB, Virginia had 842 rushing yards last year, and was the 7^th ranked QB/8^th ranked fantasy player last year? That makes his an “Elite” QB. I’m flabbergasted. He’s got a bunch of new skill position players this year, so it’ll be his job to elevate his teammates. If he does, he might end up near the top of the charts.
• I got nothin’ on Wake Forest. As in, I can’t find any previews, notes, or anything about spring practice or results this season. I’m waiting to rate the players till later.
• Jacob Eason lost his job at Georgia to Jake Fromm after tearing an ACL. He transferred to Washington. Now, he gets to replace four year starter Jake Browning. No pressure or anything.
• Once again, Washington State sports the originator of the “Air Raid” offense, Mike Leach, as the coach. The QB will be a top tier prospect, especially since more and more QB runs are being integrated into the offense. If only we knew who the starter was going to be. Anthony Gordon had a strong spring, but Gabe Gudrud is a transfer from Eastern Washington and could supplant Gordon. Whoever is the starter is a potential first pick. Oh, and if you want to pick a WR from Washington State, keep in mind that points for the wideouts will vary wildly. Essentially, the QB is going to throw to the WR that’s open; when you’re five wide, that is going to change week to week. If you have to take a Washington State WR, I’d take Jamire Colvin. He’s got the biggest upside.
• If you don’t take Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin when you have a chance, you will regret it. Year one, he ran for 1,977 yards and 13 TD’s. Year 2, he ran for 2,194 yards and 16 TD’s. If you average more than 2k a season, you’re a fantasy superstar.

DST:

• Okay, I split the DST from the “team” evaluations. But I look at DST differently; they get scored entirely different.
• Okay, Virginia Tech is generally a good to great fantasy DST option. In 2018, from a fantasy perspective, they cratered, ranked 53^rd. Yowch.
• Surprises from last season: Iowa was ranked 2^nd Miami, as bad as the season went, ended up ranked 5^th overall. No one thought Kentucky would win nine games, and they were the 8^th ranked DST. Iowa State at 11^th is remarkable, considering who they faced in the Big 12(and, keep in mind IA St only had 11 games last year…the rankings are based on TOTAL points, not Points per game. So Iowa State missed a full game and still was ranked 11^th.)
• Georgia may finally get over the hump to be an “Elite” DST this season. But they have to beat out Alabama, Clemson, Auburn and Mississippi State to do it.
• Just because I’m not a fan of Michigan nor a fan of the Michigan DST doesn’t mean you shouldn’t pick them up if you get a chance.
• I may have under-ranked Miami as a DST, but any transition like this is going to have some disruption. That will drive down fantasy fantasy value a little.
• Am I over-optimistic that Nebraska is going to be a bigger fantasy team this year than last? The Huskers finished 21^st overall…that’s not bad. Granted, from the fantasy perspective, anything under 10^th isn’t necessarily relevant (read: the difference in PPG is measured in decimals, not points), but that’s better than in prior years.

All right, so that’s all for now. Expect the early lists to start up next week. Watch for them then!